TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$59,316

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,316 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes1c6,761$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0243021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes2c6,589$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.522,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee54…c2dfbacked Yes7c2,383$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.122532%8 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick40cpaid+4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d87…f13cbacked Yes47c2,322$1,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,087.763732.4%12 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-42.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes2c1,073$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.032,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked No63c794.6$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.661365.3%400 W · 213 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes7c648.64$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9784124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes5c590.02$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.21,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes33c471.29$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.3812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xa06e…eba4backed No50c399.99$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2004520%9 W · 36 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd391…093fbacked Yes5c399.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192572%18 W · 7 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+13.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes13c349$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.886,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb1f…1df2backed Yes4c326.38$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes26c312.17$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.6656627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c2b…36f4backed No48c300.11$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.347347.9%35 W · 38 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes49c299.99$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.4716738.9%65 W · 102 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes20c299.99$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes25c293.44$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No61c284.58$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.293,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad62…2aa9backed Yes23c241.97$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4616532.7%54 W · 111 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No67c238.4$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.0991967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaeb…8032backed Yes33c230.14$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.422343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No48c220.41$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.758349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No48c215.19$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.1886050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No45c213$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.291,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5f6…b176backed Yes48c210.07$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick28cpaid-88.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes11c200$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c3a…e400backed Yes52c192.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick37cpaid+5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked No53c189.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.4159440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes34c175.61$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3110650%53 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes9c170$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1630428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe5a5…5737backed Yes24c158.94$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.483920.5%8 W · 31 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-36.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes37c157.16$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.427,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x2ed5…72a6backed No48c150$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.510154.5%55 W · 46 L+0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes36c146.47$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1619426.3%51 W · 143 L-0.9wins0.00per pick27cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaba…23f5backed No69c144.69$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.691668.8%11 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick67cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa793…9059backed No66c142.02$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.91966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No53c135.86$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.41,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ced…e412backed Yes20c130$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x888f…23f5backed Yes35c129.29$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5417338.2%66 W · 107 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes53c114$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607229.2%21 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-25.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdf6…c61bbacked No50c113.39$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.1460851.2%311 W · 297 L-24.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6372…4a25backed No79c108.67$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3641070.5%289 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe64d…5e09backed Yes13c108.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0813315%20 W · 113 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed24…1b47backed Yes28c101.83$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.585141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes34c101.15$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.431,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe44…af27backed Yes30c99.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3017433.9%59 W · 115 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefae…3acebacked Yes30c99.54$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0826827.2%73 W · 195 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked No44c88.51$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.5226265.6%172 W · 90 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No60c83.89$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.978,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes34c80.62$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.213,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed Yes45c80$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.652245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No37c78$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.352,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes27c77.93$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.372,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdeee…7c09backed No75c74.18$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.799351.6%48 W · 45 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+25.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xaf60…79c5backed Yes37c72.06$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.366445.3%29 W · 35 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No53c71.71$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.5612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb917…c055backed Yes43c69.4$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8091…3178backed No53c65.69$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.726137.7%23 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No50c59.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes49c57.54$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9920027.5%55 W · 145 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No51c55.58$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.131,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb8c…2c71backed Yes58c55.58$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.29053.3%48 W · 42 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-18.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xea4c…0e79backed No56c53.86$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.861872.2%13 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+27.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2232044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.55129.4%15 W · 36 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cb6…c66bbacked Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166939.1%27 W · 42 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed Yes25c49.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.554232.3%175 W · 367 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3db6…4894backed Yes53c49.15$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264339.5%17 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef2b…b2aebacked Yes41c48.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-57.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc550…dbe8backed Yes63c47.91$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304353.5%23 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32f0…c659backed No47c44$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3223547.7%112 W · 123 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes61c43.72$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4910562.9%66 W · 39 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf748…8183backed No43c42.69$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.53955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes35c39.86$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7881029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No51c39.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.641,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x22aa…e247backed Yes52c38.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201520%3 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a49…8d1fbacked No77c38.22$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.88248.8%40 W · 42 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed No49c37.48$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.285453.7%29 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes33c36.2$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9533243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98e9…a2f8backed No71c35.28$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2311872.9%86 W · 32 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadb6…636fbacked Yes35c33.79$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.721963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No76c32.95$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.961,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5504…665dbacked No74c32$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3210055%55 W · 45 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x094a…1274backed Yes47c31.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157728.6%22 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaaa…f641backed No75c27.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7810060%60 W · 40 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0b9…3377backed No74c26.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9814071.4%100 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick69cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2035…0c4ebacked No52c24.96$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.963658.3%21 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb537…14ccbacked No46c21.74$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7441460.1%249 W · 165 L-21.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb2d5…d87abacked No64c18.94$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.81241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39da…5318backed No79c18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.786643.9%29 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No65c17.63$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.167,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5be4…3128backed No66c17.34$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.92070%14 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59b4…78c9backed No75c16.07$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.076755.2%37 W · 30 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5648…ae7dbacked No76c16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.88475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.