Serie A · resolved market
AC Milan vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c4c9509edcd84883b2b4a520fc47a333eda85387f7e60470be8bb9e9962f7b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Over | 22c | 3,299$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.88 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 18c | 3,154$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.66 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x725d…42b0backed Over | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c3…dedebacked Over | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 25c | 323.81$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 147 | 48.3%71 W · 76 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 80c | 315.82$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.55 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd716…bad1backed Over | 21c | 281.36$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 15c | 242.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…a6f4backed Over | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Under | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf5…0144backed Under | 78c | 199.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6878…bec2backed Under | 80c | 166.25$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 22c | 156.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82c0…02fdbacked Over | 24c | 144.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 27c | 131.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 387 | 39.8%154 W · 233 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6c…1f67backed Under | 78c | 125$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d01…9b25backed Under | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Under | 78c | 118$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa237…d59abacked Under | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Over | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…bfcabacked Over | 22c | 78.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0052…4d9ebacked Over | 29c | 76.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bd…3a3bbacked Under | 78c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…5950backed Under | 73c | 42.73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc4…63f6backed Under | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…b90bbacked Under | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 71c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 467 | 42.8%200 W · 267 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Under | 77c | 25.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb815…342fbacked Under | 77c | 21.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Under | 77c | 21.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Under | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 70c | 18.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 368 | 52.7%194 W · 174 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 77c | 15.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 217 | 48.8%106 W · 111 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2a…1666backed Under | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AC Milan vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 3.5this page
- AC Milan vs. Genoa CFC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AC Milan vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 1.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 2.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)Genoa CFC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.