TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Birmingham: Coleman Wong vs Filippo Romano

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Filippo Romanoof Coleman Wong, Filippo Romano
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$141,931
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$158,057

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,931 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x26e7…cc6cbacked Coleman Wong3c30,202$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841.6239238.8%152 W · 240 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3663…8950backed Filippo Romano55c6,000$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,70039243.4%170 W · 222 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Coleman Wong47c5,297$2,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,467.2265558.9%386 W · 269 L-32.1wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Filippo Romano77c4,823$3,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1086,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x48de…95babacked Coleman Wong38c4,737$1,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,79062545.4%284 W · 341 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Coleman Wong33c3,903$1,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,302.0611,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Coleman Wong43c3,792$1,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,612.778,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8718…5040backed Filippo Romano56c3,547$1,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,569.5214264.8%92 W · 50 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Filippo Romano54c3,298$1,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,504.838,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Filippo Romano73c2,766$2,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.094,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Filippo Romano23c2,637$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,041.051,47535.2%519 W · 956 L-14.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbfb…84a6backed Filippo Romano23c2,449$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,881.5212814.1%18 W · 110 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-40.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Filippo Romano23c1,982$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,516.4211237.5%42 W · 70 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6168…dda9backed Filippo Romano55c1,809$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$808.675265.4%34 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed Filippo Romano22c1,718$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,333.261,26756.6%717 W · 550 L-18.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Coleman Wong17c1,525$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.986,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Coleman Wong38c1,230$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.398,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Coleman Wong57c1,182$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.632,06535.2%727 W · 1,338 L-52.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Filippo Romano57c1,126$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.925,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Filippo Romano53c1,001$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4694,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Coleman Wong55c1,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5509,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Coleman Wong78c905.38$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.23,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Filippo Romano64c869.07$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.641,68150%841 W · 840 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Coleman Wong19c849.8$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.0666834.3%229 W · 439 L-43.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-40.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed Filippo Romano29c817.93$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.61,50435.1%528 W · 976 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x287d…38febacked Filippo Romano39c750.73$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.2837421.9%82 W · 292 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2374…a426backed Coleman Wong54c715.46$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.3587337.1%324 W · 549 L-3.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Coleman Wong61c700$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4271,22841.1%505 W · 723 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Coleman Wong49c674.67$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.991755.5%509 W · 408 L+2.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x191f…f09ebacked Coleman Wong43c511.91$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22022245.9%102 W · 120 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Coleman Wong55c500$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2754,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Coleman Wong36c450.41$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.311,45950.1%731 W · 728 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf5b…5d3abacked Coleman Wong47c425.72$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003174.2%23 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick68cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd46e…d10dbacked Coleman Wong48c414.1$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19858931.1%183 W · 406 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Coleman Wong9c400.97$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.944,92138.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L-20.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cf5…31f9backed Coleman Wong53c379.44$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2035850%29 W · 29 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58c5…17e8backed Coleman Wong51c375.7$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.689638.5%37 W · 59 L-0.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf81f…1c7cbacked Coleman Wong75c362.12$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-33.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x733d…cc26backed Filippo Romano61c345.36$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.67650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Coleman Wong17c337.88$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3663746%293 W · 344 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc367…a0b4backed Coleman Wong49c329.12$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.9446435.3%164 W · 300 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Coleman Wong16c325$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.525,41648.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L+14.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Filippo Romano55c323$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.881,92355.4%1,066 W · 857 L-44.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x27fa…d8c4backed Filippo Romano40c301.39$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.7913928.1%39 W · 100 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+13.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39f8…badabacked Filippo Romano40c300$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1808537.6%32 W · 53 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x561d…4134backed Coleman Wong39c261.57$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.744949.4%222 W · 227 L+23.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Filippo Romano20c250$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2005,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed Coleman Wong80c246.91$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.531,45854%787 W · 671 L-33.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x012d…9db6backed Filippo Romano53c245.39$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.3984968.4%581 W · 268 L+25.9wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Filippo Romano43c241.76$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.7692138.4%354 W · 567 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Coleman Wong78c240$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.247854.8%262 W · 216 L+25.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+23.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x87d1…3744backed Filippo Romano43c230.81$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.811,10466.9%739 W · 365 L+36.9wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Filippo Romano49c227$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.851,34949.8%672 W · 677 L-6.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x20b4…bfa2backed Filippo Romano42c215.05$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.7333540.9%137 W · 198 L+0.6wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bfa…a8debacked Coleman Wong51c207.07$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.5835951.3%184 W · 175 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Coleman Wong39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.536,44946.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L-42.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed Coleman Wong14c200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2869438%264 W · 430 L+21.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26ca…da6abacked Coleman Wong54c200$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1078158%47 W · 34 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Coleman Wong79c199.97$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.9834154.3%185 W · 156 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Coleman Wong34c198.38$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.331,48747.5%706 W · 781 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1d7…47a4backed Coleman Wong51c194.12$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991,02341.3%422 W · 601 L-24.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc3…0670backed Coleman Wong53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10048144.5%214 W · 267 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Coleman Wong77c183$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.917,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Coleman Wong75c177.05$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.791,10742.8%474 W · 633 L-20.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Coleman Wong77c175.76$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.1858745.7%268 W · 319 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6188…0a91backed Filippo Romano57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.442070%14 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Coleman Wong11c173.75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.941,06242%446 W · 616 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7747…8d9bbacked Coleman Wong51c171.33$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.3831941.4%132 W · 187 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Coleman Wong77c162$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.741,65849.9%828 W · 830 L+7.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9311…e731backed Coleman Wong34c159$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542755.6%15 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2903…9203backed Coleman Wong46c158.07$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.711,07660.4%650 W · 426 L+24.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f64…3633backed Coleman Wong78c157$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.4699249.4%490 W · 502 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e0b…1435backed Coleman Wong44c154.37$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6639035.9%140 W · 250 L-61.1wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-43.1%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0x9bdb…a90dbacked Coleman Wong50c140$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6826921.2%57 W · 212 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-24.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Filippo Romano56c138.79$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.196,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Filippo Romano53c132.12$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.123,22040.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L+28.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Coleman Wong69c126.16$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.053,67754.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L+107.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed Coleman Wong26c125$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.934847.1%164 W · 184 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc369…b1ccbacked Filippo Romano20c122.83$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.2639254.1%212 W · 180 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Filippo Romano59c122.6$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.682,04946.8%958 W · 1,091 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7741…23e6backed Filippo Romano49c108.49$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.332157.1%12 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Coleman Wong46c103.13$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.71,65550.1%829 W · 826 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Coleman Wong77c100$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771,54149.2%758 W · 783 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Coleman Wong79c100$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7938947.3%184 W · 205 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a70…76b5backed Filippo Romano51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4917646%81 W · 95 L+11.5wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+23.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x293c…dcbabacked Coleman Wong50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5036053.1%191 W · 169 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf970…f7f6backed Filippo Romano21c100$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792,48535.9%893 W · 1,592 L-28.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Coleman Wong45c94$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.32,11855.9%1,185 W · 933 L+40.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2534…3484backed Coleman Wong54c92.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502661.5%16 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1351…178bbacked Filippo Romano22c90.91$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.9116746.7%78 W · 89 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8e1…9bc1backed Coleman Wong78c89.76$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.0178350.3%394 W · 389 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9e5…b040backed Filippo Romano56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.292466.7%16 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe8b…5e62backed Filippo Romano55c87.56$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.5623932.6%78 W · 161 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x441f…8954backed Coleman Wong49c76.22$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.362114.3%3 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick30cpaid-54.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6f18…d6cabacked Coleman Wong58c75.36$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.743852.6%20 W · 18 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick63cpaid-17.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9565…ec9abacked Filippo Romano46c74.49$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.0418038.3%69 W · 111 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70f9…f25bbacked Filippo Romano23c72.44$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.1299056%554 W · 436 L+32.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e62…fd00backed Coleman Wong34c70.42$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2420347.3%96 W · 107 L-14.1wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-18.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb772…ed49backed Filippo Romano51c68.64$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.654337.2%16 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0df7…1ec1backed Coleman Wong23c63$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.21,85357.7%1,069 W · 784 L+106.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+3.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.