Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. FC Basel 1893: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c9c07a33f87d22f95b14028537771577b0674aa26873f98e2d7bcbd6b684c6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 68c | 4,625$3,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,489.41 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 35c | 3,269$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.36 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 23c | 1,500$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 219 | 25.6%56 W · 163 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb4…acb6backed Under | 78c | 1,363$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.49 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee4…9f0cbacked Under | 78c | 1,282$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Over | 22c | 800.06$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.01 | 190 | 27.4%52 W · 138 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 23c | 611.94$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.51 | 139 | 20.1%28 W · 111 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 32c | 524.71$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.24 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 77c | 304.07$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.33 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa237…d59abacked Under | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 68cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 23c | 290$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 23c | 158.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Under | 77c | 135.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 77c | 133.16$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0052…4d9ebacked Over | 49c | 126.25$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.42 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 59c | 110$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | -7.8wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e14…bc35backed Over | 54c | 90.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea51…a876backed Under | 42c | 78.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff8…1bcfbacked Under | 78c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa840…63a4backed Over | 21c | 66.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…e4b0backed Over | 21c | 66.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Over | 78c | 63.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Over | 21c | 49.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f7…b888backed Under | 79c | 44.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb856…a9bcbacked Over | 71c | 42.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 50c | 41.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 55c | 37.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 65c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4712…5bd6backed Under | 78c | 33.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x754d…893bbacked Under | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…4287backed Over | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e6…a6edbacked Under | 71c | 27.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18c4…1319backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb789…bae4backed Under | 78c | 17.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x183d…5814backed Under | 80c | 16.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfead…f7bdbacked Under | 80c | 15.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1669…7a9dbacked Under | 80c | 15.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.09 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…9725backed Over | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e62…e7a4backed Under | 79c | 14.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e4…4386backed Under | 80c | 13.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcd…d93ebacked Under | 80c | 13.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.71 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacfc…debcbacked Under | 80c | 12.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.59 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. FC Basel 1893: O/U 4.5this page
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. FC Basel 1893: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. FC Basel 1893: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. FC Basel 1893: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. FC Basel 1893: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: FC Red Bull Salzburg (-1.5)FC Red Bull Salzburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.