Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ca719ffaa436225ce0c637bcd080c6bb49a88be072516d199fbabfe7980ed6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,682
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 733.74$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.03 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 297$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed Yes | 12c | 270.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 12c | 181.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 29c | 157.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 36c | 157.02$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 149.47$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.62 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 133.33$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 37c | 125.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 67c | 109.13$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.63 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 14c | 99.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 66c | 99.27$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f8…394dbacked Yes | 40c | 97.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 62c | 95.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 92.06$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 12c | 85.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 60c | 81.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 24c | 81.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 80.17$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 23c | 78.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 70c | 78.11$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 78.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 76.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 64c | 57.43$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 28c | 53.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 59c | 50.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 61c | 50.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 61c | 50.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 46.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 64c | 43.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 43.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 33c | 42.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 37c | 36.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 35.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b53…d7d3backed Yes | 35c | 34.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 62c | 33.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…2ee9backed Yes | 34c | 30.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 30.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…5cccbacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 39c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d575backed No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 94 | 70.2%66 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c10…5269backed No | 61c | 24.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 68c | 23.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 62c | 22.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 62c | 22.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 65c | 22.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 58c | 22.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8976…4ea7backed No | 77c | 21.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a9…dcf5backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e8…2e62backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.