Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9025ac249cab1147c7e211b079171cced5d0c732d9f84dbfc6427871659f91e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,530
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,448
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,530 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21d5…b6d5backed No | 1c | 1,875$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…6c83backed No | 3c | 1,322$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 49c | 479.96$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.43 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 49c | 414.25$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.99 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 370.77$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.2 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed No | 24c | 354.07$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.81 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes | 50c | 334.5$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.25 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 331.58$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 57c | 326.4$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.38 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 316.14$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 78c | 246.26$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.18 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 51c | 233.94$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 53c | 202.84$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.25 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.15 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 185.65$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.94 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 169.85$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 46c | 158.45$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.45 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 57c | 154.38$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.41 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 62c | 153.17$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.22 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 69c | 151.5$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 58c | 150.62$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.87 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 68c | 147.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.86 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 139.58$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.04 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 77c | 137.99$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 58c | 136.87$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 34c | 131.88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 46c | 130$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 41c | 126.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.44 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 56c | 124.08$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.84 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 43c | 121.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.64 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed Yes | 42c | 119.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.63 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 66c | 116.88$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 17c | 111.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 35c | 109.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…b301backed Yes | 66c | 107$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed Yes | 32c | 104.15$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.82 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 36c | 100.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.67 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f8…394dbacked Yes | 53c | 100.47$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.47 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…866abacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 31c | 97.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.03 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 31c | 97.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.03 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 48c | 97.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.61 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 64c | 95.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.11 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 53c | 93.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 38c | 91.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 38c | 84.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 31c | 77.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 19c | 68.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 22c | 68.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 48c | 66.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 49c | 66.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 52c | 66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 45c | 65.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7076…b1e4backed Yes | 48c | 63.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 50c | 59.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 63c | 54.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…5cccbacked No | 43c | 52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 51.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb32e…d9cebacked No | 37c | 51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…b997backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2809…1652backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…c67fbacked No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39d3backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1a…8572backed Yes | 79c | 49.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4209…0ccdbacked No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 44.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 47c | 43.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 43.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e5…f156backed Yes | 54c | 43.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x478f…dbb2backed Yes | 60c | 42.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 44c | 40.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6f…01c2backed No | 43c | 39.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda62…04c8backed No | 59c | 39.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 34c | 37.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 38c | 37.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 38c | 37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbabc…518dbacked Yes | 44c | 35.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 44cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…2072backed Yes | 59c | 34.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.