Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Team Envy vs MIBR - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cb336c6a250c565bc9761e4c75e5166e1f38b376e0050696550d0a4df34c523
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Envyof Team Envy, MIBR
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,084
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed MIBR | 75c | 15,000$11,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,250 | 521 | 55.5%289 W · 232 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…c98bbacked Team Envy | 25c | 14,064$3,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,548.26 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked MIBR | 34c | 4,375$1,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,466.83 | 684 | 58.3%399 W · 285 L | +56.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed MIBR | 40c | 4,327$1,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,716.81 | 531 | 59.1%314 W · 217 L | +41.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Envy | 43c | 3,832$1,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,184.44 | 689 | 49.5%341 W · 348 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked MIBR | 27c | 3,379$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.13 | 655 | 59.4%389 W · 266 L | +50.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed MIBR | 37c | 2,803$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.28 | 931 | 48.1%448 W · 483 L | -11.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Envy | 62c | 1,719$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.17 | 1,376 | 47.1%648 W · 728 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e62…f6ffbacked Team Envy | 47c | 1,575$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked MIBR | 25c | 1,374$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.03 | 943 | 61.2%577 W · 366 L | +58.2wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked MIBR | 21c | 1,226$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.21 | 533 | 55.3%295 W · 238 L | +24.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked MIBR | 15c | 1,030$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.5 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f14…1262backed MIBR | 64c | 1,026$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Team Envy | 73c | 1,023$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.08 | 1,608 | 45.2%727 W · 881 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aee…8796backed MIBR | 70c | 996.3$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed MIBR | 15c | 994.96$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.57 | 563 | 57.9%326 W · 237 L | +36.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Team Envy | 52c | 989.34$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.28 | 1,309 | 43.8%573 W · 736 L | -44.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed MIBR | 66c | 876.52$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.14 | 452 | 50%226 W · 226 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked MIBR | 50c | 876$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.64 | 311 | 53.1%165 W · 146 L | +15.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed MIBR | 23c | 861.62$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.44 | 291 | 51.5%150 W · 141 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked Team Envy | 25c | 800$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 287 | 47.4%136 W · 151 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x009b…26dabacked Team Envy | 25c | 702.21$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.68 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x421e…1e47backed MIBR | 79c | 677.08$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.73 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…2748backed Team Envy | 73c | 595.84$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.77 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bee…e55cbacked Team Envy | 30c | 593.38$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.38 | 182 | 61%111 W · 71 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Team Envy | 19c | 506.66$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.53 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4031…92c8backed MIBR | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed MIBR | 74c | 500$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 320 | 47.8%153 W · 167 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Team Envy | 36c | 480$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.2 | 409 | 44.3%181 W · 228 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…f0f9backed Team Envy | 29c | 478.1$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c93…33d5backed MIBR | 15c | 451.89$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.47 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Team Envy | 35c | 429$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.83 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f6…dbd1backed MIBR | 51c | 396.02$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba50…ad0bbacked Team Envy | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 244 | 57.8%141 W · 103 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e1…e05cbacked Team Envy | 37c | 300$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9553…cfc7backed MIBR | 51c | 268.01$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.55 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e9…5ef8backed MIBR | 33c | 250$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb515…cd6bbacked Team Envy | 44c | 232.8$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.36 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9b…2013backed MIBR | 23c | 220.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 187 | 35.3%66 W · 121 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Team Envy | 41c | 201.25$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.01 | 264 | 36%95 W · 169 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3248…aad4backed Team Envy | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.64 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +47%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…02a1backed MIBR | 21c | 177.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed MIBR | 18c | 159$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 517 | 49.5%256 W · 261 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Envy | 67c | 154.84$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.73 | 1,746 | 46.2%806 W · 940 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96f1…b6d8backed Team Envy | 61c | 149.64$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.36 | 146 | 61.6%90 W · 56 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf33…0353backed MIBR | 76c | 142.82$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.54 | 333 | 46.5%155 W · 178 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Team Envy | 58c | 120$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.42 | 1,490 | 46.6%695 W · 795 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…ed76backed MIBR | 53c | 118.49$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.47 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 45cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed MIBR | 75c | 110$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.31 | 636 | 52.7%335 W · 301 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked MIBR | 78c | 108.05$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.28 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed MIBR | 35c | 100.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 575 | 17.7%102 W · 473 L | -71.7wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x912e…0eaebacked MIBR | 15c | 89.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9b…59eabacked Team Envy | 32c | 84.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.52 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Team Envy | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 55 | 69.1%38 W · 17 L | +12.2wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb108…7212backed Team Envy | 25c | 74.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.24 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -8.4wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Team Envy | 28c | 70$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 180 | 56.1%101 W · 79 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1791…3e87backed Team Envy | 25c | 60.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.89 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Team Envy | 19c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 305 | 44.3%135 W · 170 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee8…7406backed Team Envy | 21c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 225 | 42.7%96 W · 129 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda74…1ab0backed Team Envy | 54c | 59.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Envy | 75c | 57.34$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 1,417 | 51.3%727 W · 690 L | +49.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e5…c8d1backed Team Envy | 41c | 52.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…e406backed MIBR | 74c | 51.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 547 | 51.2%280 W · 267 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5d…d5dfbacked Team Envy | 50c | 51.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Team Envy | 36c | 51.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 257 | 52.1%134 W · 123 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c0…244ebacked Team Envy | 22c | 48.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.83 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae5…f868backed Team Envy | 29c | 40.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Team Envy | 39c | 38.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 241 | 40.2%97 W · 144 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Team Envy | 45c | 37.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Team Envy | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 779 | 29.5%230 W · 549 L | -72.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5038…6236backed MIBR | 78c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0181…9b5fbacked Team Envy | 31c | 33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 278 | 50%139 W · 139 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked MIBR | 42c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 385 | 48.6%187 W · 198 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6161…c834backed Team Envy | 65c | 28.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x787d…aecdbacked Team Envy | 63c | 28.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc161…bd88backed MIBR | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61ad…a0c8backed MIBR | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Team Envy | 72c | 25.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 322 | 61.5%198 W · 124 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea86…6fb4backed MIBR | 74c | 22.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…e505backed MIBR | 80c | 21.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 71 | 64.8%46 W · 25 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: Team Envy vs MIBR - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: MIBR (-1.5) vs Team Envy (+1.5)Team Envy won
- Valorant: Team Envy vs MIBR (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group AlphaTeam Envy won
- Valorant: Team Envy vs MIBR - Map 1 WinnerTeam Envy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.