Other European Leagues · resolved market
SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden vs. SBV Excelsior: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cd640ad432e292509cb396be0e36bf18ca1d199c7ddc4a1ceb9645fdfb720a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 27c | 6,642$1,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,825.71 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 6,417$4,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,903.62 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 16c | 6,137$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.77 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 64c | 4,674$2,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,693.98 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d2…d7c9backed Over | 56c | 4,495$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 11c | 1,483$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.41 | 638 | 49.5%316 W · 322 L | +26.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 48c | 1,288$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.42 | 877 | 45.2%396 W · 481 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 11c | 819.3$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.95 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 21c | 719.44$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.55 | 460 | 44.3%204 W · 256 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 648.65$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.9 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 17c | 584$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.28 | 211 | 51.7%109 W · 102 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7245…4b00backed Over | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc464…5139backed Over | 47c | 415.11$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.96 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 19c | 400$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 370 | 49.5%183 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 70c | 383.96$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.81 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 74c | 352.53$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.89 | 305 | 50.8%155 W · 150 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8db…7c68backed Under | 46c | 349.95$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.97 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 30c | 330.86$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.41 | 869 | 60.4%525 W · 344 L | +91.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x67bf…f983backed Over | 8c | 296.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35aa…7bd0backed Over | 10c | 255.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…bf4cbacked Under | 64c | 251.64$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.86 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 14c | 245.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 219 | 53.4%117 W · 102 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 73c | 233.14$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.85 | 339 | 59%200 W · 139 L | +18.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 75c | 231.16$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.05 | 351 | 63.5%223 W · 128 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 48c | 216.68$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.68 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…e756backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Under | 72c | 174.87$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 75 | 64%48 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78ad…b32ebacked Over | 50c | 151$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63ab…eb49backed Under | 77c | 134.16$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4abb…d858backed Over | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa9…09fabacked Under | 24c | 131.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 50c | 122$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 19c | 121.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 233 | 47.2%110 W · 123 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 41c | 109.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 74c | 102.55$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 256 | 41.4%106 W · 150 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…ff44backed Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 47c | 98.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 237 | 47.7%113 W · 124 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 13c | 96.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 715 | 33.8%242 W · 473 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Under | 62c | 88.51$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 53c | 70.47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 44c | 69.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 437 | 21.7%95 W · 342 L | -49.3wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 29c | 63.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | +45.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 17c | 61.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 734 | 40.1%294 W · 440 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b04…6477backed Over | 31c | 61.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 513 | 56.3%289 W · 224 L | +23.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Under | 73c | 55.52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 98 | 66.3%65 W · 33 L | +12.0wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 54c | 51.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 59c | 49.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 210 | 36.7%77 W · 133 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Over | 60c | 46.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 75 | 77.3%58 W · 17 L | +12.7wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Under | 70c | 43.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 43c | 41.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x013f…ca85backed Under | 73c | 33.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 39c | 32.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Over | 34c | 32.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 69 | 71%49 W · 20 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 37c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122b…ac59backed Under | 36c | 30.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dc…21b9backed Under | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked Under | 63c | 23.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 54 | 70.4%38 W · 16 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Under | 73c | 22.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed Under | 75c | 22.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 58c | 19.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 408 | 50.7%207 W · 201 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Under | 76c | 13.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden vs. SBV Excelsior: O/U 4.5this page
- SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden vs. SBV Excelsior: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden vs. SBV Excelsior: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden vs. SBV Excelsior: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden vs. SBV Excelsior: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden vs. SBV Excelsior: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden vs. SBV Excelsior: O/U 0.5Over won
- SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden vs. SBV Excelsior: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden vs. SBV Excelsior: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden vs. SBV Excelsior: O/U 3.5Over won
- SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden vs. SBV Excelsior: O/U 5.5Under won
- SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden vs. SBV Excelsior: SBV Excelsior O/U 0.5Over won
- SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden vs. SBV Excelsior: SBV Excelsior O/U 1.5Over won
- Spread: SBV Excelsior (-2.5)SBV Excelsior won
- Spread: SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden (-1.5)SBV Excelsior won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.