MLB · resolved market
Orioles vs. Blue Jays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d1fea0706b06f336a7f8276f898a40d8e658e7595f460bfa048ebf99ce8d92f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Blue Jaysof Orioles, Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,003,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,021,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,003,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf29b…dd4cbacked Orioles | 36c | 755,141$270,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270,193.77 | 380 | 43.4%165 W · 215 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Blue Jays | 64c | 476,720$306,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170,677.12 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Blue Jays | 65c | 158,382$102,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55,858.66 | 631 | 52.6%332 W · 299 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked Blue Jays | 64c | 97,250$62,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,010 | 117 | 59%69 W · 48 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Blue Jays | 64c | 40,000$25,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,400 | 482 | 54.4%262 W · 220 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x439b…2c9abacked Orioles | 37c | 22,654$8,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,279.52 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | -12.0wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Blue Jays | 64c | 21,088$13,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,591.8 | 550 | 53.6%295 W · 255 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Blue Jays | 63c | 18,532$11,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,772.58 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Orioles | 36c | 16,666$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,999.76 | 173 | 51.4%89 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x991a…2411backed Blue Jays | 51c | 15,501$7,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,595.71 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…77bfbacked Blue Jays | 64c | 15,000$9,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,455.27 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Blue Jays | 64c | 9,034$5,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,252.31 | 111 | 50.5%56 W · 55 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed Orioles | 48c | 7,317$3,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,516.18 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Orioles | 36c | 6,845$2,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,455.14 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Orioles | 36c | 5,649$2,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,036.34 | 731 | 49.4%361 W · 370 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Blue Jays | 64c | 5,600$3,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,016 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Blue Jays | 64c | 4,732$3,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,703.37 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Blue Jays | 64c | 4,455$2,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,614.64 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x257d…aac8backed Orioles | 11c | 4,420$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Blue Jays | 64c | 3,843$2,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,385.89 | 439 | 49.4%217 W · 222 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Blue Jays | 64c | 3,755$2,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,341.75 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Blue Jays | 69c | 3,094$2,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.39 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Blue Jays | 64c | 2,500$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 564 | 51.1%288 W · 276 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Blue Jays | 63c | 2,500$1,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Orioles | 35c | 2,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Blue Jays | 64c | 2,000$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 264 | 53.8%142 W · 122 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Blue Jays | 64c | 1,934$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.41 | 1,097 | 50.1%550 W · 547 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Blue Jays | 63c | 1,796$1,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.4 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3890…39e3backed Orioles | 37c | 1,652$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.24 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Orioles | 4c | 1,320$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5da…d89ebacked Orioles | 17c | 1,193$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…62d9backed Blue Jays | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf208…314ebacked Blue Jays | 65c | 1,000$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Orioles | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d4…a077backed Orioles | 37c | 939.99$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.8 | 508 | 43.3%220 W · 288 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Orioles | 35c | 919.13$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.7 | 401 | 52.4%210 W · 191 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Orioles | 37c | 899.81$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.55 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea1…56f2backed Orioles | 37c | 686$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.82 | 124 | 36.3%45 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Blue Jays | 66c | 666$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.44 | 519 | 53.2%276 W · 243 L | -24.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Orioles | 36c | 662.3$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.43 | 687 | 69.6%478 W · 209 L | +60.4wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb61f…9958backed Orioles | 8c | 661.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 272 | 13.6%37 W · 235 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Blue Jays | 65c | 615.38$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.38 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Blue Jays | 65c | 615$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.25 | 1,293 | 46.6%603 W · 690 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ad…9d38backed Blue Jays | 64c | 593$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.48 | 170 | 45.3%77 W · 93 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Blue Jays | 63c | 591$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.67 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Blue Jays | 64c | 549$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.64 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…aae3backed Orioles | 37c | 547$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.39 | 444 | 43%191 W · 253 L | +21.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d64…01fabacked Orioles | 35c | 517.21$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.02 | 513 | 47%241 W · 272 L | +32.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Orioles | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba56…b1e3backed Orioles | 36c | 486.11$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Blue Jays | 68c | 455.21$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.25 | 764 | 56%428 W · 336 L | +32.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x519d…37a1backed Orioles | 4c | 401.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 585 | 2.1%12 W · 573 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Blue Jays | 68c | 343.77$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.43 | 549 | 41%225 W · 324 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Blue Jays | 71c | 332.71$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.98 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe895…c3dabacked Orioles | 29c | 327.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.12 | 452 | 48.2%218 W · 234 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Blue Jays | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 563 | 51%287 W · 276 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1126…4e82backed Blue Jays | 64c | 300$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 600 | 52.2%313 W · 287 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3713…14e8backed Orioles | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…7becbacked Orioles | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Blue Jays | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Blue Jays | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7381…5b63backed Blue Jays | 52c | 169.86$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.63 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Blue Jays | 61c | 164.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.55 | 218 | 53.2%116 W · 102 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3372…1914backed Blue Jays | 64c | 155.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.53 | 1,388 | 55.1%765 W · 623 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa177…6e84backed Blue Jays | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8868…ec0dbacked Blue Jays | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf751…7957backed Blue Jays | 64c | 149.55$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Blue Jays | 58c | 144.24$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.89 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…95a1backed Blue Jays | 65c | 115.38$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 401 | 44.1%177 W · 224 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadc4…1ce3backed Orioles | 36c | 110$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 184 | 46.2%85 W · 99 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Blue Jays | 65c | 105.18$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 709 | 46.1%327 W · 382 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Blue Jays | 63c | 92.79$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.33 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefa9…7a30backed Blue Jays | 65c | 83$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Orioles | 36c | 82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Blue Jays | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4f…3d87backed Blue Jays | 65c | 79$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…9bbabacked Orioles | 43c | 73.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 137 | 40.1%55 W · 82 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87ea…f625backed Orioles | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 331 | 40.2%133 W · 198 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x670f…3f29backed Blue Jays | 64c | 68.05$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed Blue Jays | 60c | 67.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 356 | 52.5%187 W · 169 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Blue Jays | 63c | 61.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x337b…2420backed Orioles | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c5…bf7abacked Orioles | 36c | 58.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 192 | 42.2%81 W · 111 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Orioles | 35c | 57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffbc…b889backed Blue Jays | 64c | 56.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Orioles | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 695 | 47.5%330 W · 365 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Blue Jays | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7777…f2bbbacked Blue Jays | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…04cbbacked Blue Jays | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc553…5928backed Orioles | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Blue Jays | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd287…7485backed Blue Jays | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 543 | 52.3%284 W · 259 L | +27.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…9c02backed Blue Jays | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 179 | 54.7%98 W · 81 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac1…5f0fbacked Blue Jays | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 342 | 57.6%197 W · 145 L | +25.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Blue Jays | 63c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6360…c981backed Blue Jays | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 252 | 55.6%140 W · 112 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Orioles | 36c | 43.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 662 | 50.2%332 W · 330 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2276…307bbacked Orioles | 48c | 41.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Orioles | 36c | 40.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37d9…4d63backed Blue Jays | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Orioles vs. Blue Jaysthis page
- Orioles vs. Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Blue Jays (-1.5)Blue Jays won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.