Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d2b51e85664ba6c45506a6f09b4cb222139994b2039c8fb2238062d143ca542
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 29c | 1,001$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.49 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Yes | 27c | 744$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.12 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 19c | 353.05$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.82 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 33c | 307.35$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.05 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 73c | 294.22$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.82 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 28c | 277.44$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.81 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 32c | 270$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.48 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 27c | 269.15$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.36 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 230.01$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.51 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 73c | 136.23$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.25 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 122$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.17 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 48c | 120.25$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.84 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 70c | 116$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.81 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 23c | 111.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.97 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 111.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 109.02$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.28 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 72c | 105$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.52 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…ba60backed No | 74c | 98.59$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 92.95$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 78c | 79.57$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 77.45$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.21 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 73.05$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.61 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 29c | 72.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.18 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 29c | 65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 64.32$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 34c | 63.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 66c | 62.87$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 31c | 60.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 73c | 58.27$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 73c | 57.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 39c | 55.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.96 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 28c | 54.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 29c | 52.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…2a4fbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 32c | 47.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 29c | 46.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 35c | 44.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 73c | 43.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 40.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 76c | 37.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 36.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 31c | 36.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 53c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5b…1d03backed No | 75c | 31.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 73c | 31.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 71c | 29.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 72c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 51c | 23.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 77c | 23.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 21.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 75c | 20.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed No | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 77c | 19.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 17.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 66c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 66c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 73c | 13.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 63°F or below on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.