Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fb53c6d7f504c107e571dec06fe99832ee58495e0e5380f363c71b093d05733
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 398.2$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 34c | 320.67$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.09 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 66c | 294.22$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.34 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 34c | 268.96$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.15 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 28c | 167.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 53c | 165.62$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.21 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…ba60backed Yes | 16c | 137$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 65c | 136.23$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 129.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 122$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.32 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 109.02$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 24c | 108.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 105.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 63c | 105$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 100.53$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 89.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 88.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 52c | 81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01d0…7b12backed Yes | 32c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 27c | 77.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 37c | 72.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 71.79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 34c | 67.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 33c | 67.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 64.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 48c | 63.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 66c | 63.06$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 67c | 58.27$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 38c | 56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 37c | 50.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b03…4343backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…3c16backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…866abacked Yes | 33c | 49.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 35c | 48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 32c | 47.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 27c | 45.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 44.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 40.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 62c | 39.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 61c | 36.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 32c | 35.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 34.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 78c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 24.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 74c | 22.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 65c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 63c | 21.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 21.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 69c | 17.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 64c | 17.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 64c | 15.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 63°F or below on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.