TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Eintracht Frankfurt vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL DACH: Evolution Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FOKUSof Eintracht Frankfurt, FOKUS
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$53,399
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$61,281

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,399 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1b37…1f70backed Eintracht Frankfurt53c8,689$4,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,609.9811159.5%66 W · 45 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Eintracht Frankfurt47c7,567$3,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,552.229051.1%46 W · 44 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79bd…5c31backed FOKUS53c3,741$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,741.261060%6 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Eintracht Frankfurt44c3,575$1,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,568.8232462.7%203 W · 121 L+31.7wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed Eintracht Frankfurt54c2,648$1,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,423.691656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf964…a4cebacked FOKUS46c2,007$913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,093.83650%18 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…f8d8backed FOKUS40c1,696$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,014.355341.5%22 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab96…989fbacked FOKUS47c1,675$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$895.897234.7%25 W · 47 L-11.0wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-33.8%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed FOKUS46c1,583$721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$862.0641537.1%154 W · 261 L-26.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb8c2…eef4backed FOKUS74c1,517$1,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.316654.5%36 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac75…1319backed Eintracht Frankfurt53c1,514$807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807.362250%11 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked FOKUS45c1,328$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.8412948.1%62 W · 67 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa0…1160backed FOKUS53c1,178$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.883743.2%16 W · 21 L-4.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-25.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed Eintracht Frankfurt60c1,116$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.4145250%226 W · 226 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed FOKUS45c1,111$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.0533942.2%143 W · 196 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0c5…da68backed FOKUS43c1,095$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.811233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-25.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3c67…e40ebacked FOKUS33c1,000$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6702339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Eintracht Frankfurt54c999.98$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.9913642.6%58 W · 78 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Eintracht Frankfurt41c917.08$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.151344.6%229 W · 284 L-10.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Eintracht Frankfurt64c887.27$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.0694361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked FOKUS48c826.34$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.5224846%114 W · 134 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x44c8…a9ffbacked FOKUS45c763.53$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.941833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-33.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf95e…1816backed FOKUS54c736.26$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.267855.1%43 W · 35 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9919…f261backed FOKUS46c663.04$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.0410242.2%43 W · 59 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80d6…6db0backed FOKUS31c653.23$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+226.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Eintracht Frankfurt50c645.12$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.5614158.2%82 W · 59 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x00c9…1d82backed FOKUS45c640$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3521100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Eintracht Frankfurt57c612.08$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.124835.4%17 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x39c0…ae83backed Eintracht Frankfurt75c608.24$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459771.4%5 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick73cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f3d…1f52backed FOKUS39c570.77$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.882842.9%12 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-28.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0122…f1aabacked FOKUS52c510.98$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.271258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f01…0d90backed Eintracht Frankfurt54c505.12$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.762326.1%6 W · 17 L-4.2wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-25.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xceee…d39ebacked FOKUS46c500$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2706338.1%24 W · 39 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-6.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9095…b6cbbacked FOKUS47c500$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…5c4cbacked FOKUS34c484.73$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.532552%13 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7174…9874backed FOKUS52c448.23$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed FOKUS46c430$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.223447%110 W · 124 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked FOKUS77c427.22$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.081,61245.1%727 W · 885 L-25.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1791…3e87backed FOKUS51c415.74$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.3324751.8%128 W · 119 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed FOKUS66c406.4$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.9142540.5%172 W · 253 L-22.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b86…dd8fbacked FOKUS49c406.22$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.212828.6%8 W · 20 L-8.7wins-0.31per pick60cpaid-50%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xd02a…4771backed FOKUS51c392.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.167347.9%35 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47ce…356dbacked Eintracht Frankfurt53c374.63$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.0520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4d3…4b1fbacked FOKUS48c360$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.82850%14 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Eintracht Frankfurt49c340.39$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.798638.4%33 W · 53 L-7.5wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-26.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3449…4030backed FOKUS51c330.39$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.895738.6%22 W · 35 L-5.1wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-23.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb654…7be3backed FOKUS45c319$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.45837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd679…91a0backed FOKUS51c314.97$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.742445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed FOKUS40c303.14$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.881,28132.1%411 W · 870 L-67.2wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x218b…625abacked FOKUS46c300$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1621010%1 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick31cpaid-78.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed Eintracht Frankfurt49c300$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1479750.5%49 W · 48 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc7e…70ecbacked FOKUS48c299.48$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.2412239.3%48 W · 74 L-13.5wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-25.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Eintracht Frankfurt55c277.51$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.1460454%326 W · 278 L+22.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e19…d2b0backed FOKUS33c275.53$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.7110159.4%60 W · 41 L+11.4wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+24.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed FOKUS46c270$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.817740.1%71 W · 106 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdabd…6adabacked FOKUS51c269.91$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.5610237.3%38 W · 64 L-6.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xab2a…30edbacked Eintracht Frankfurt56c267.95$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Eintracht Frankfurt37c246.25$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.9714533.8%49 W · 96 L-10.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-40.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked FOKUS53c241.98$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.731,38047.1%650 W · 730 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x021a…d3aebacked FOKUS44c229.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.278736.8%32 W · 55 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0cc…ce77backed FOKUS45c226.74$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.712138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66ea…6791backed FOKUS45c217.78$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.785158.8%30 W · 21 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d72…a791backed FOKUS52c189.98$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.624953.1%26 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed FOKUS50c186.94$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.4716046.9%75 W · 85 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Eintracht Frankfurt54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002429.2%7 W · 17 L-3.7wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-27.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x28ca…a5d4backed Eintracht Frankfurt53c180.65$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-35.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x094a…e4a9backed FOKUS50c180$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+16.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed FOKUS41c172.38$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.691,49546.6%696 W · 799 L-17.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dfc…521fbacked FOKUS51c166.73$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe61a…292dbacked Eintracht Frankfurt51c155.2$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Eintracht Frankfurt51c150.68$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.8733753.1%179 W · 158 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Eintracht Frankfurt28c149.25$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4875142.7%321 W · 430 L-27.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked FOKUS46c138.22$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.651,31243.8%575 W · 737 L-44.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6376…0d2abacked FOKUS46c131.39$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.1231046.5%144 W · 166 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed FOKUS47c125.92$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6927145%122 W · 149 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7248…8cb4backed FOKUS49c121.64$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.786053.3%32 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe4…d0f1backed FOKUS45c117$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.353548.6%17 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked FOKUS74c113.65$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5535142.5%149 W · 202 L-14.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3ff…4c57backed FOKUS76c111.38$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.732100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f12…3e35backed FOKUS52c109.56$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.5910844.4%48 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked FOKUS54c108.48$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.92751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26cb…9fe7backed FOKUS30c106.67$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.673951.3%20 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f08…e919backed Eintracht Frankfurt42c105.94$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2310630.2%32 W · 74 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a0e…b0babacked FOKUS47c105.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.384854.2%26 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Eintracht Frankfurt54c105$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.763652.7%335 W · 301 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe56a…2ba5backed FOKUS72c104.11$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.123930.8%12 W · 27 L-7.5wins-0.19per pick50cpaid-32%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xc347…8ee3backed FOKUS54c103.4$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.49666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+52.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xae8e…08f9backed Eintracht Frankfurt54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5412157%69 W · 52 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c47…7a9fbacked FOKUS50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5012750.4%64 W · 63 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+17.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1769…94efbacked FOKUS50c99.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.896841.2%28 W · 40 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed FOKUS45c96.3$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.0441835.6%149 W · 269 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-32.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe062…4907backed FOKUS47c95$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.356640.9%27 W · 39 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked FOKUS46c94.79$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.6114729.9%44 W · 103 L-19.2wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-43.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7b74…cbaebacked Eintracht Frankfurt52c94.08$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.77365.8%48 W · 25 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6707…d4d8backed Eintracht Frankfurt56c89.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011564.3%74 W · 41 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8c2…45b2backed Eintracht Frankfurt28c81$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2918444.6%82 W · 102 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66a6…f22bbacked Eintracht Frankfurt25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202853.6%15 W · 13 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7718…2252backed FOKUS52c79.99$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.791266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+21.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c9e…fbfdbacked FOKUS47c79.38$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.1810844.4%48 W · 60 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f28…d173backed FOKUS76c78$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.724766%31 W · 16 L+4.8wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+18.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.