TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Rockets (-7.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pelicansof Rockets, Pelicans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$580,134

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $580,134 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 541 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd64…7445backed Pelicans53c66,912$35,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,448.63366.7%22 W · 11 L+4.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+26.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5733…f044backed Pelicans53c35,268$18,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,576.035100%5 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+102.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x62e9…0e01backed Pelicans53c32,710$17,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,373.73785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.35per pick51cpaid+68.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd8c6…3e08backed Rockets47c32,318$15,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,189.461080%8 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+61%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x985b…528ebacked Pelicans53c30,943$16,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,543.227100%7 W · 0 L+3.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9af6…dcfdbacked Rockets47c29,647$13,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,934.09771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+47.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7576…cb8abacked Pelicans53c29,348$15,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,793.56875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+49.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xffeb…c48abacked Rockets47c27,521$12,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,934.871070%7 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+36.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x73ca…8ac1backed Pelicans53c25,950$13,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,196.52055%11 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x521c…3136backed Rockets47c24,749$11,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,632.03771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+41.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x44e9…04b7backed Rockets47c24,706$11,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,611.82862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+25.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x719b…0b07backed Pelicans53c24,074$12,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,314.78785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.36per pick50cpaid+71.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1030…9b8dbacked Rockets47c22,839$10,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,734.33862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+25.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd77c…6630backed Rockets47c19,192$9,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,019.88771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+43.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6da…8286backed Rockets47c18,802$8,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,836.94475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+52.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa729…9326backed Rockets47c18,420$8,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,6574949%24 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a54…d7c6backed Pelicans53c16,528$8,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,768.16771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+42%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3252…1280backed Rockets47c16,085$7,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,559.95666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+35.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1af4…c4f3backed Pelicans53c15,424$8,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,249.28683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.34per pick50cpaid+67.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d02…881cbacked Rockets47c15,419$7,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,246.93977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.29per pick48cpaid+59.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc63a…0f03backed Pelicans53c15,302$8,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,191.94683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick50cpaid+66.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6b8…679dbacked Pelicans53c13,004$6,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,111.94683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.34per pick49cpaid+69.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1ffb…3d68backed Rockets47c10,464$4,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,918.08771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+44.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xac2e…8bdbbacked Rockets47c10,039$4,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,718.33475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick49cpaid+53.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaae5…5f7ebacked Rockets47c9,955$4,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,678.85475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick48cpaid+57.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xafd0…dff8backed Rockets47c6,757$3,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,175.79250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28d7…02b8backed Rockets47c6,625$3,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,113.75560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x920c…4af5backed Rockets47c6,311$2,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,966.17757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6528…2498backed Rockets47c6,115$2,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,874.051060%6 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d62…8911backed Pelicans53c5,983$3,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,812.01560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+20.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a76…dcb9backed Rockets47c5,643$2,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,652.21757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbd4…b767backed Pelicans53c5,558$2,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,612.26771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+41.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6274…fbeebacked Rockets47c5,251$2,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,467.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x889c…c417backed Rockets47c5,202$2,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,444.94250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ed8…748bbacked Rockets47c5,191$2,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,439.77366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+37.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb6…0eaabacked Rockets47c5,109$2,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,401.23250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb98d…9189backed Rockets47c5,093$2,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,393.71250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef65…4d15backed Rockets47c5,051$2,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,373.97250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Pelicans52c5,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,399.941,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8212…e86ebacked Rockets47c4,983$2,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,342.01250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0377…9e70backed Rockets47c4,969$2,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,335.43366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+37.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad98…53ccbacked Rockets47c4,939$2,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,321.33250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Pelicans56c4,872$2,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,143.636359.8%217 W · 146 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf195…ff1dbacked Rockets47c4,847$2,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,278.09366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+37.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa00…3ca7backed Rockets47c4,834$2,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,271.98333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1613…c43dbacked Rockets47c4,787$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,249.89250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9070…cd61backed Rockets47c4,766$2,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,240.02250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ff6…a6c0backed Rockets47c4,726$2,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,221.22250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8f6…02f6backed Pelicans53c4,701$2,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,209.524100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+109.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf7ef…3b22backed Pelicans53c4,678$2,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,198.66742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1b7…01e7backed Rockets47c4,651$2,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,185.97366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+37.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x906d…ce17backed Pelicans53c4,630$2,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,176.1580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+57.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x893d…10a6backed Pelicans53c4,625$2,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,173.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+32.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc04…6be0backed Pelicans53c4,579$2,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,152.13366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+32.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbef…6a89backed Pelicans53c4,522$2,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,125.345100%5 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6d68…41dabacked Rockets47c4,521$2,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,124.87333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07fb…80ddbacked Pelicans53c4,498$2,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,114.06366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+30.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8c1…27cebacked Rockets47c4,496$2,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,113.12366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+37.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ecf…225abacked Rockets47c4,492$2,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,111.24366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+29.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa066…f8d8backed Rockets47c4,475$2,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,103.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+37.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc30e…1656backed Pelicans53c4,452$2,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,092.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+30.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d81…a42abacked Rockets47c4,447$2,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,090.02580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+63.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x976b…5b93backed Rockets47c4,423$2,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,078.81250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x386a…3ea0backed Rockets47c4,422$2,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,078.34250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x968f…c0a2backed Pelicans53c4,419$2,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,076.93366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+30.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2f0…8b05backed Pelicans53c4,415$2,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,075.05450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2acb…0fd6backed Pelicans53c4,404$2,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,069.88475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+48.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Rockets48c4,376$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1001,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3617…c7b8backed Rockets47c4,330$2,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,035.1250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b49…4d86backed Pelicans53c4,285$2,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,013.95366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+32.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…88b4backed Pelicans55c4,265$2,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,920.0122453.1%119 W · 105 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5496…dd84backed Pelicans53c4,262$2,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,003.14580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+63.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3180…b045backed Pelicans53c4,245$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,995.15475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+53.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x30ea…f377backed Rockets47c4,179$1,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,964.13250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5078…542abacked Rockets47c4,177$1,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,963.19333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x834e…ec4abacked Pelicans53c4,149$2,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,950.03366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+32.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc424…b66bbacked Pelicans53c4,093$2,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,923.71475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+52.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x91ca…6fb3backed Rockets47c4,030$1,894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,894.1250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb180…7285backed Pelicans53c3,994$2,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,877.18475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+48.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa062…56afbacked Pelicans53c3,951$2,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,856.975100%5 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x88b7…b871backed Pelicans53c3,925$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,844.75475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+39.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26e8…b879backed Pelicans53c3,868$2,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,817.96366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+24.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfe0…e6c6backed Pelicans53c3,851$2,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,809.97366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+24.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd873…935dbacked Rockets47c3,849$1,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,809.03250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb449…ad68backed Pelicans53c3,728$1,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,752.16475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+48.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1736…9b9ebacked Pelicans53c3,726$1,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,751.22966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+34.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0520…6fe4backed Pelicans53c3,710$1,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,743.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+32.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf208…08c1backed Pelicans53c3,464$1,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,628.08366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+32.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Pelicans56c3,439$1,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,498.124,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Rockets45c3,214$1,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,454.529,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6c8…56aebacked Pelicans53c3,183$1,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,496.01450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6c3…e53ebacked Pelicans53c3,147$1,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,479.09475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+47.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Rockets46c3,123$1,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,421.384,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95ce…3ba5backed Pelicans53c3,064$1,624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,440.08666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+28.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea2a…7103backed Pelicans53c3,057$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,436.791266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xff9c…42f2backed Pelicans53c3,053$1,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,434.915100%5 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcf01…e665backed Pelicans53c2,936$1,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,379.92862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+21.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dc1…185fbacked Rockets47c2,932$1,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,378.04333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d80…8a9bbacked Pelicans53c2,925$1,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,374.75560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a10…2c53backed Rockets47c2,911$1,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,368.17333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.