NBA · resolved market
Pelicans vs. Rockets: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a4cddedc9f214ea091260c2835c24b83ded748d0a15d23782f7b3533e8e3957
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,287 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa45d…b413backed Over | 51c | 3,589$1,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,830.39 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 2,277$1,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,161.23 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 44c | 2,016$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.57 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 49c | 1,071$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.28 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa182…03fabacked Over | 54c | 949.99$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.99 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea1…9569backed Over | 55c | 915.01$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae9…0624backed Under | 51c | 471.18$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.18 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 49c | 471.18$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.18 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 46c | 425.51$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.78 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f43…c0c2backed Over | 55c | 351.31$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.91 | 234 | 35.9%84 W · 150 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 52c | 209.31$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.43 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 48c | 148.57$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.09 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Over | 54c | 123.87$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.02 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c03…1c9fbacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 155 | 44.5%69 W · 86 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x850b…5493backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 49c | 84.54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 45c | 77.28$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 609 | 45.8%279 W · 330 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed Under | 48c | 76.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 45c | 65.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 553 | 47.9%265 W · 288 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 62.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 59.91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 33c | 59.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 931 | 45.8%426 W · 505 L | -25.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed Under | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 1,084 | 42.4%460 W · 624 L | -48.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Over | 53c | 30.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 46c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 464 | 47.8%222 W · 242 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 55c | 21.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pelicans vs. Rockets: O/U 227.5this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Rockets won
- Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Amen Thompson: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Dejounte Murray: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Kevin Durant: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
- Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Pelicans vs. RocketsRockets won
- Pelicans vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Pelicans vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Rockets: O/U 225.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Rockets: O/U 228.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Rockets: O/U 229.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Rockets: O/U 230.5Under won
- Reed Sheppard: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Spread: Rockets (-5.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Rockets (-6.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Rockets (-7.5)Pelicans won
- Tari Eason: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Trey Murphy III: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Zion Williamson: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.