NBA · resolved market

Spread: Rockets (-5.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98fba04922158c14286af9765a3755bcc4d17dfd6137a06e9812a7f1d2450fe9

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Pelicansof Rockets, Pelicans
Resolved: Mar 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $73,251

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,251 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Pelicans	49c	23,034$11,188 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,845.91	240	53.8%129 W · 111 L	+12.5wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+11%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Rockets	52c	20,000$10,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,399.99	126	39.7%50 W · 76 L	-6.4wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Rockets	51c	19,495$9,942 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,942.39	1,915	49.3%944 W · 971 L	+19.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Pelicans	49c	17,962$8,802 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,160.76	1,374	50.1%689 W · 685 L	+34.9wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Rockets	52c	9,993$5,165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,165.5	1,124	48.6%546 W · 578 L	+13.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f4…ed78backed Pelicans	48c	7,488$3,594 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,893.5	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	+2.2wins	+0.14per pick	49cpaid	+28.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Pelicans	48c	5,000$2,400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,600	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Rockets	51c	5,000$2,550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,550	773	48.5%375 W · 398 L	+7.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Rockets	52c	3,199$1,663 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,663.28	702	46.4%326 W · 376 L	-20.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7f4…c48fbacked Pelicans	48c	2,083$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,083.33	51	47.1%24 W · 27 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Rockets	51c	1,961$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$999.99	649	44.7%290 W · 359 L	-9.5wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Pelicans	49c	1,838$901 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$937.38	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Pelicans	48c	1,609$779 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$829.83	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Pelicans	49c	1,000$490 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$510	236	44.1%104 W · 132 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xebba…383cbacked Rockets	51c	980.39$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	240	50.8%122 W · 118 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b46…121dbacked Pelicans	49c	816.33$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$416.33	315	51.7%163 W · 152 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b02…f3d9backed Rockets	52c	676.92$351 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$351	68	39.7%27 W · 41 L	-3.7wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Pelicans	53c	654.18$348 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$305.78	1,645	47.5%782 W · 863 L	+40.9wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Pelicans	50c	600.45$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300.45	1,389	54.9%762 W · 627 L	+16.7wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Pelicans	48c	580.86$279 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$302.05	216	53.7%116 W · 100 L	+6.8wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Pelicans	48c	479.17$230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$249.17	485	46.4%225 W · 260 L	-14.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Pelicans	48c	416.17$201 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$215.61	2,468	50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L	+38.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4e2…5ec0backed Rockets	49c	400$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196	62	53.2%33 W · 29 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Rockets	53c	400$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-27%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2271…8170backed Rockets	51c	392.15$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	181	47%85 W · 96 L	-8.6wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb503…7552backed Rockets	52c	355.77$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185	141	55.3%78 W · 63 L	+9.4wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xec56…dd09backed Pelicans	48c	300$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156	283	48.8%138 W · 145 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Rockets	50c	288$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Rockets	47c	279.64$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.76	2,400	43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L	-82.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Rockets	54c	250.57$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.25	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Rockets	52c	200$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Rockets	60c	197.5$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.5	1,522	49.6%755 W · 767 L	+27.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99a5…328ebacked Pelicans	49c	187.54$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.68	108	44.4%48 W · 60 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans	47c	150.94$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.25	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ac8…9e67backed Rockets	50c	150$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	185	43.2%80 W · 105 L	-7.9wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1e9…6d8ebacked Rockets	52c	150$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	154	46.1%71 W · 83 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…763bbacked Rockets	51c	147.05$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	337	48.1%162 W · 175 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Pelicans	51c	145.91$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.5	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Pelicans	51c	143.13$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.13	918	46.2%424 W · 494 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Rockets	43c	136.92$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.37	1,633	41.2%672 W · 961 L	+26.3wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe2…e1eebacked Rockets	52c	125$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.24per pick	49cpaid	-49.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Pelicans	48c	121.34$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.1	191	47.6%91 W · 100 L	+6.9wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Pelicans	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	454	45.4%206 W · 248 L	-6.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4c5…378abacked Rockets	52c	96.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	157	44.6%70 W · 87 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1966…da9ebacked Rockets	52c	96.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	358	49.7%178 W · 180 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf72c…2669backed Rockets	53c	94.34$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	60%3 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Rockets	50c	91.86$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.93	874	53.3%466 W · 408 L	+19.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Rockets	57c	87.72$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	954	52.3%499 W · 455 L	-17.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Rockets	52c	80.38$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.99	1,197	48.9%585 W · 612 L	-14.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87fa…12d0backed Pelicans	49c	61.22$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.22	153	57.5%88 W · 65 L	+6.7wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75dc…4f82backed Pelicans	59c	58.02$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.79	557	51.9%289 W · 268 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Pelicans	60c	50$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	1,271	38.3%487 W · 784 L	-13.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1f…f5eabacked Rockets	40c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Pelicans	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c4c…dc70backed Pelicans	49c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.5	144	52.1%75 W · 69 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb83d…3aa2backed Rockets	52c	49.04$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	240	42.9%103 W · 137 L	-9.3wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Pelicans	48c	41.24$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.24	917	46.9%430 W · 487 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa00e…73fabacked Pelicans	49c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.4	169	51.5%87 W · 82 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Rockets	52c	40$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.8	452	51.1%231 W · 221 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3bfc…8eb3backed Rockets	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	139	47.5%66 W · 73 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c78…aad1backed Rockets	57c	35.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	278	47.1%131 W · 147 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x94bb…c320backed Pelicans	49c	24.48$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.48	378	45%170 W · 208 L	-7.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Rockets	51c	22.53$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.49	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Rockets	52c	19.41$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.09	762	50.4%384 W · 378 L	+3.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Rockets (-5.5)this page
1H Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Rockets won
Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 5.5No won
Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 18.5No won
Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
Amen Thompson: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
Dejounte Murray: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
Kevin Durant: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
Pelicans vs. RocketsRockets won
Pelicans vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineRockets won
Pelicans vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
Pelicans vs. Rockets: O/U 225.5Under won
Pelicans vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5Under won
Pelicans vs. Rockets: O/U 227.5Under won
Pelicans vs. Rockets: O/U 228.5Under won
Pelicans vs. Rockets: O/U 229.5Under won
Pelicans vs. Rockets: O/U 230.5Under won
Reed Sheppard: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
Spread: Rockets (-6.5)Pelicans won
Spread: Rockets (-7.5)Pelicans won
Tari Eason: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
Trey Murphy III: Points O/U 20.5No won
Zion Williamson: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Rockets (-5.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event