MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d5e23dbece53a4143ad4f24258b57be2a41d95348c6ddcaabd384ed27b41f60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,946
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 66c | 6,600$4,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,328.74 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 49c | 2,591$1,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,311.73 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 44c | 2,241$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,264.65 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 58c | 1,862$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.15 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 49c | 1,342$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.77 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 51c | 1,319$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.77 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 51c | 999.99$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 947 | 34.4%326 W · 621 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Over | 30c | 452$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.24 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Over | 28c | 344$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.96 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Over | 34c | 251$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.66 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked Over | 34c | 225$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x189c…c9aebacked Over | 51c | 202.08$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Over | 34c | 201$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.66 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 47c | 192$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.25 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Over | 34c | 188$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.08 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Over | 34c | 186$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.76 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 80c | 143.53$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Under | 71c | 136.65$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.03 | 201 | 61.2%123 W · 78 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 34c | 118.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.71 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.65 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 56c | 106.08$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.11 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 52c | 105.64$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.24 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Over | 26c | 93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.82 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Over | 33c | 79.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 66c | 63.15$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 31c | 59.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Over | 34c | 58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Over | 34c | 52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Over | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Over | 34c | 49.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 49c | 48.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 242 | 50%121 W · 121 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Over | 54c | 47.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 356 | 58.1%207 W · 149 L | +26.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Under | 55c | 45.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 256 | 55.1%141 W · 115 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a96…b71dbacked Over | 34c | 42.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…68a0backed Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 58c | 37.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 527 | 52.2%275 W · 252 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1497…4414backed Over | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed Under | 67c | 32.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 462 | 51.7%239 W · 223 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f8…99d0backed Under | 59c | 24.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3618…b2b2backed Under | 61c | 20.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 98 | 40.8%40 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami MarlinsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.