MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc985428df22d67bc72dc085f7bafe16a8ec0519064978630574c0f7adc8d231e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5d8…a00bbacked Over | 38c | 8,472$3,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,268.81 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 59c | 7,417$4,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,385.59 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 47c | 6,110$2,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,262.71 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 4,331$2,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,402.62 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 55c | 3,497$1,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920.88 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 53c | 2,187$1,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.11 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 46c | 1,199$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.07 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 49c | 1,182$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.87 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 52c | 975.5$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.32 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 61c | 873.74$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.95 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 56c | 674.49$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.29 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 64c | 650.9$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.61 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Over | 39c | 506$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.51 | 333 | 52.3%174 W · 159 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 947 | 34.4%326 W · 621 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa466…1c77backed Over | 36c | 496.73$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.91 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +238.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Under | 56c | 452$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.15 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 40c | 444.4$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.64 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 55c | 345.95$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.86 | 508 | 56.9%289 W · 219 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Under | 54c | 328$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.88 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Under | 63c | 296$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.03 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 283.1$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.68 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 67c | 265.01$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.43 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Under | 63c | 252.77$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.26 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 54c | 249.98$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.99 | 216 | 50.5%109 W · 107 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 58c | 208.39$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.46 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Under | 62c | 188$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.36 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Under | 61c | 188$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.68 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 55c | 162.35$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.31 | 583 | 58.5%341 W · 242 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 42c | 151.9$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 800 | 52%416 W · 384 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked Under | 62c | 151.61$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 55c | 141.96$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.51 | 1,026 | 58.1%596 W · 430 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 58c | 107$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.94 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Under | 58c | 106.69$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 437 | 57%249 W · 188 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…594dbacked Under | 55c | 102.97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Under | 74c | 93$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 54c | 87.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Under | 62c | 79.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Over | 44c | 71.47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 396 | 53%210 W · 186 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 61c | 68.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x189c…c9aebacked Over | 32c | 62.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Under | 61c | 58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Under | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Under | 63c | 48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 51c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 242 | 50%121 W · 121 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…ab49backed Under | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +39%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 42c | 37.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 634 | 54.3%344 W · 290 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Over | 40c | 36.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 356 | 58.1%207 W · 149 L | +26.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…cec8backed Under | 55c | 34.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -5.9wins | -0.30per pick | 60cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaae2…2383backed Under | 57c | 30.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -5.4wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 52c | 29.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 527 | 52.2%275 W · 252 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…e969backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Under | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami MarlinsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.