MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x541f9bad00082e425412b9c5ab193091b184a76d3b41839d5feff9b3eec5c817
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 56c | 4,417$2,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,451.25 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 45c | 2,629$1,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,445.97 | 444 | 46.8%208 W · 236 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 45c | 2,010$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.5 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 65c | 1,354$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.1 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 45c | 895.2$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.36 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 80c | 575.93$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.02 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 18c | 523$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.86 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 38c | 503.01$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.67 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 72c | 457.65$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.6 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 400$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 39c | 337$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.95 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 27c | 294.97$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.33 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 28c | 231$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.49 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 49c | 200$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Under | 51c | 194.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 162 | 46.3%75 W · 87 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 58c | 149.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.13 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 65c | 135.4$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.01 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 55c | 134.62$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.04 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 47c | 134.62$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 65c | 134.16$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.2 | 508 | 56.9%289 W · 219 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Under | 54c | 112.33$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.11 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 595 | 34.5%205 W · 390 L | -22.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 58c | 92.09$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 1,026 | 58.1%596 W · 430 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 68c | 81.82$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.04 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 52c | 70.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Under | 65c | 67.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 437 | 57%249 W · 188 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 65c | 67.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 583 | 58.5%341 W · 242 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 483 | 43.3%209 W · 274 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 741 | 43.5%322 W · 419 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 55c | 57.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 527 | 52.2%275 W · 252 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…78a5backed Over | 23c | 52.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.48 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa94…b3f4backed Over | 48c | 51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Over | 47c | 42.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 46c | 42.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…594dbacked Under | 65c | 40.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 54c | 40.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 475 | 52%247 W · 228 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…226cbacked Over | 38c | 26.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Over | 49c | 24.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 390 | 49%191 W · 199 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 48c | 21.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae2…2383backed Under | 65c | 20.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -5.4wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami MarlinsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.