MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9380c020d7d2922ec146f4507b5289079cca421b856e8f92919f645db4bd935
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Boston Red Sox, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins | 57c | 3,148$1,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,787.28 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 59c | 3,073$1,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,827.82 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Boston Red Sox | 41c | 3,000$1,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,770 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 52c | 2,955$1,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,535.12 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 2,663$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,544.28 | 792 | 47.5%376 W · 416 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 32c | 2,426$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,646.59 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Boston Red Sox | 46c | 1,733$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.56 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Miami Marlins | 67c | 1,324$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.69 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Boston Red Sox | 49c | 824.18$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.18 | 161 | 46.6%75 W · 86 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Miami Marlins | 51c | 532.25$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.45 | 216 | 50.5%109 W · 107 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Boston Red Sox | 47c | 447.51$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.79 | 333 | 52.3%174 W · 159 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Miami Marlins | 51c | 429.18$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.88 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins | 55c | 409.84$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.41 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Boston Red Sox | 28c | 358.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.42 | 484 | 45.9%222 W · 262 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Miami Marlins | 56c | 355.34$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.99 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Boston Red Sox | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 592 | 52.7%312 W · 280 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Miami Marlins | 53c | 282.9$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.67 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Boston Red Sox | 44c | 206.5$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.64 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Boston Red Sox | 44c | 133$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Miami Marlins | 54c | 102.35$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.27 | 623 | 46.2%288 W · 335 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Boston Red Sox | 48c | 101.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.85 | 616 | 46.4%286 W · 330 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Boston Red Sox | 42c | 97.62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.06 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58ad…be98backed Miami Marlins | 56c | 93.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Boston Red Sox | 44c | 88.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.58 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Boston Red Sox | 29c | 82.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.97 | 356 | 58.1%207 W · 149 L | +26.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Miami Marlins | 58c | 75.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 201 | 61.2%123 W · 78 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 75.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 60.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 428 | 49.1%210 W · 218 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a48…9e7bbacked Miami Marlins | 56c | 53.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 195 | 49.2%96 W · 99 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Boston Red Sox | 76c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3618…b2b2backed Miami Marlins | 55c | 43.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 98 | 40.8%40 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Boston Red Sox | 46c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Boston Red Sox | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 301 | 55.1%166 W · 135 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Miami Marlins | 51c | 27.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 242 | 50%121 W · 121 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Miami Marlins | 52c | 20.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed Miami Marlins | 73c | 16.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 462 | 51.7%239 W · 223 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami MarlinsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.