TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Modena: Xiyu Wang vs Laura Samson

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Laura Samsonof Xiyu Wang, Laura Samson
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$131,162
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$148,526

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,162 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 169 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Laura Samson75c7,104$5,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,780.638,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafac…8730backed Laura Samson43c6,977$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,976.7424631.3%77 W · 169 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Xiyu Wang56c6,692$3,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,772.793,72642.4%1,580 W · 2,146 L-48.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Xiyu Wang37c6,526$2,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,428.369,03836.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L-196.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe7e…6d00backed Laura Samson37c4,554$1,694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,859.854122%9 W · 32 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-50.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Xiyu Wang64c4,169$2,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,654.644,25345%1,912 W · 2,341 L+20.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe5ef…9e7abacked Xiyu Wang51c3,884$1,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,996.875332.1%17 W · 36 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-32.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc3df…9945backed Xiyu Wang47c2,941$1,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,395.9226847.8%128 W · 140 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Xiyu Wang52c2,061$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,064.953,71145.3%1,680 W · 2,031 L-6.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe49a…ff17backed Laura Samson49c2,041$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.822360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d74…f2abbacked Xiyu Wang20c2,001$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40043334.9%151 W · 282 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Xiyu Wang49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9809,37444.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L-244.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Laura Samson54c1,835$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847.9611,66643.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L+22.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Laura Samson37c1,628$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,030.431,47535.2%519 W · 956 L-14.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Laura Samson56c1,404$791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.114,60267.8%3,119 W · 1,483 L+309.9wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Laura Samson34c1,306$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868.051,37138.3%525 W · 846 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Laura Samson73c1,261$915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.736,65250.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L+263.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Laura Samson49c1,020$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.411,44648.8%706 W · 740 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Xiyu Wang72c1,000$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.845445.4%206 W · 248 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Xiyu Wang25c957.82$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.7794140.6%382 W · 559 L-31.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x710c…78eabacked Laura Samson67c934.16$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.641,04058.2%605 W · 435 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Xiyu Wang37c914.49$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.722,09944.5%935 W · 1,164 L-51.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2b0…cfa1backed Laura Samson40c906.31$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.369137.4%34 W · 57 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Laura Samson59c893.06$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.345,42256.3%3,054 W · 2,368 L+231.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed Xiyu Wang42c841.17$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3501,50435.1%528 W · 976 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a70…76b5backed Laura Samson42c790.49$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.7317646%81 W · 95 L+11.5wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+23.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb40…68b6backed Laura Samson76c770.25$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.414566.7%30 W · 15 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+32.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc398…f446backed Xiyu Wang38c694.74$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26496035.4%340 W · 620 L-40.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Laura Samson52c630.39$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.62,32652.1%1,213 W · 1,113 L+85.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d99…9675backed Laura Samson33c598.21$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.2115530.3%47 W · 108 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef29…2f1ebacked Xiyu Wang35c584.78$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.281,13145.4%514 W · 617 L-34.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd231…633cbacked Laura Samson29c545.32$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.446058.3%35 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Xiyu Wang54c528$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.244,76049.6%2,361 W · 2,399 L+176.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Xiyu Wang63c512.29$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.743,31948.4%1,605 W · 1,714 L-52.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Xiyu Wang49c505.09$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.6292145.2%416 W · 505 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Xiyu Wang49c500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2454,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa182…3106backed Xiyu Wang45c446.84$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20161062.8%383 W · 227 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2374…a426backed Xiyu Wang26c397.62$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.2987837.2%327 W · 551 L-2.3wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf04b…4778backed Xiyu Wang31c397.45$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1255740.4%23 W · 34 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+28.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd05e…f1e9backed Xiyu Wang45c390.75$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.251070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d91…40d3backed Laura Samson28c346.61$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.5648630.9%150 W · 336 L+2.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0d0d…2fa1backed Laura Samson49c343.8$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.341361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Laura Samson51c322.18$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.488,70242.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L-165.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd30b…1b50backed Xiyu Wang64c312.5$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004231%13 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x936e…4d49backed Laura Samson66c303.03$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.036165.6%40 W · 21 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed Xiyu Wang65c303.02$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.961,45854%787 W · 671 L-33.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31d1…a9f7backed Xiyu Wang33c302$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.66742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Laura Samson32c301.11$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.171,26634.2%433 W · 833 L-43.2wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4064…5f1ebacked Laura Samson25c300$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22528039.3%110 W · 170 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Laura Samson44c299.35$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.615,00941.4%2,075 W · 2,934 L-82.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Laura Samson47c298$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.092,77653.7%1,491 W · 1,285 L+69.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Xiyu Wang45c293.25$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.164,97538.6%1,922 W · 3,053 L-19.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x692b…b4f2backed Laura Samson39c293$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.7345744.2%202 W · 255 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Laura Samson66c292.36$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.5499244.7%443 W · 549 L-29.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-25.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfde8…671cbacked Laura Samson62c289.76$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Xiyu Wang37c285.65$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.4964346.2%297 W · 346 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Xiyu Wang47c282.67$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.361,65550.1%829 W · 826 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked Laura Samson36c279.3$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.972,73534%931 W · 1,804 L-13.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb767…d848backed Xiyu Wang74c270$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.822667.7%153 W · 73 L+1.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Laura Samson35c261.69$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.173350.9%373 W · 360 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xabb3…f5b0backed Laura Samson67c253.73$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.7347657.4%273 W · 203 L+31.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ea6…428abacked Xiyu Wang45c250$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.529048.3%140 W · 150 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d29…f683backed Xiyu Wang56c250$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.533647.3%159 W · 177 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x29b1…ca10backed Laura Samson56c221.07$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.3915544.5%69 W · 86 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked Laura Samson39c205.99$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1262,05859.5%1,225 W · 833 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67ff…3214backed Xiyu Wang33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6638522.3%86 W · 299 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Xiyu Wang30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606,79236.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L-98.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x02b1…c764backed Xiyu Wang62c198.83$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.791464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Xiyu Wang64c186.39$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.293,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Xiyu Wang48c184.88$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.22,83947.2%1,340 W · 1,499 L+38.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc28…adb1backed Laura Samson49c184.18$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.93757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f57…3e7abacked Xiyu Wang76c182.46$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.6785057.5%489 W · 361 L+0.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ba7…67a1backed Xiyu Wang41c181.1$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.2565942.2%278 W · 381 L-25.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x87d1…3744backed Laura Samson59c167.8$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.81,10466.9%739 W · 365 L+36.9wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b6b…ec86backed Laura Samson28c153.89$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.81,06231.8%338 W · 724 L-27.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x092a…8577backed Xiyu Wang34c147.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509943.4%43 W · 56 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa99f…164bbacked Xiyu Wang34c147.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5027528.4%78 W · 197 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-7.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0cf8…75e4backed Laura Samson32c146.88$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.8819343.5%84 W · 109 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2409…215ebacked Xiyu Wang72c139.18$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10024450.8%124 W · 120 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Laura Samson51c138.22$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.1591755.5%509 W · 408 L+2.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2572…bb08backed Xiyu Wang77c129.87$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-51.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8d07…b9febacked Xiyu Wang12c122.77$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.33208.8%28 W · 292 L-15.3wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-64.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Xiyu Wang33c121$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.875,49848.5%2,667 W · 2,831 L+10.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Xiyu Wang63c117.06$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.751,12551.1%575 W · 550 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27eb…0232backed Xiyu Wang47c115$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.052429.2%7 W · 17 L-4.4wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-28.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x43ce…7fc9backed Xiyu Wang53c113.6$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Xiyu Wang42c107.57$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4541544.3%184 W · 231 L-1.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52f2…5a5dbacked Xiyu Wang64c106.42$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.458757.5%50 W · 37 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99f4…335fbacked Xiyu Wang61c103.69$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.2524474.2%181 W · 63 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick71cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2aa1…1ea8backed Laura Samson53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4728031.8%89 W · 191 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa672…6b31backed Laura Samson58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423148.4%15 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Xiyu Wang57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571,34949.8%672 W · 677 L-6.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x16f3…e1eebacked Xiyu Wang51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5111745.3%53 W · 64 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92e3…eb51backed Xiyu Wang51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515653.6%30 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Laura Samson60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4019349.7%96 W · 97 L-7.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1d9…3e26backed Xiyu Wang52c94.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.440%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x776f…32b7backed Laura Samson49c85.71$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.716157.4%35 W · 26 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-1.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x304a…05ecbacked Xiyu Wang23c82.67$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1914031.4%44 W · 96 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6bb…a47fbacked Laura Samson61c81.97$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.976767.2%45 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Laura Samson43c81.4$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.42,63946.4%1,224 W · 1,415 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.