Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Yannick Hanfmann
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d7e9eb0196e21e4457c5e5cc1d616d39ddcc77e92278d7d73bf98262834efee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alcarazof Alcaraz, Hanfmann
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $235,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $238,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $235,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f8b…01aabacked Hanfmann | 2c | 41,224$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.38 | 84 | 29.8%25 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Hanfmann | 3c | 27,719$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.63 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Hanfmann | 2c | 25,000$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.28 | 178 | 23%41 W · 137 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Hanfmann | 2c | 13,504$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.64 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1027…966cbacked Hanfmann | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…7967backed Hanfmann | 2c | 6,649$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.5 | 123 | 22%27 W · 96 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Hanfmann | 4c | 6,573$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.63 | 656 | 47.6%312 W · 344 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…0ec8backed Hanfmann | 3c | 5,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.65 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Hanfmann | 2c | 4,690$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.8 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Hanfmann | 2c | 3,384$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.97 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Hanfmann | 2c | 3,058$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.24 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Hanfmann | 2c | 2,633$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.51 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Hanfmann | 3c | 2,603$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.98 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Hanfmann | 2c | 2,195$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Hanfmann | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99e4…e4c4backed Hanfmann | 1c | 2,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f6…adc3backed Hanfmann | 2c | 2,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Hanfmann | 2c | 1,865$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Hanfmann | 2c | 1,805$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 108 | 9.3%10 W · 98 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed Hanfmann | 2c | 1,647$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 249 | 31.3%78 W · 171 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Hanfmann | 2c | 1,536$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Hanfmann | 4c | 1,398$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.66 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Hanfmann | 2c | 1,273$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Hanfmann | 2c | 1,043$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Hanfmann | 2c | 1,027$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…1dfcbacked Hanfmann | 2c | 1,015$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x137e…5292backed Hanfmann | 3c | 997.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72c…ced0backed Hanfmann | 2c | 972.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Hanfmann | 2c | 956.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 174 | 36.8%64 W · 110 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c5…0d72backed Hanfmann | 2c | 949.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Hanfmann | 3c | 889.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ff…24e3backed Hanfmann | 3c | 885.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Hanfmann | 2c | 850.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Hanfmann | 4c | 784.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84e5…2303backed Hanfmann | 3c | 781.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…5bb9backed Hanfmann | 3c | 710.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Hanfmann | 4c | 700$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,106 | 41%454 W · 652 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb405…c706backed Hanfmann | 2c | 609$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Hanfmann | 3c | 561.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Hanfmann | 2c | 502.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb53…c50bbacked Hanfmann | 2c | 472.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…c18cbacked Hanfmann | 2c | 459$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3792…3f75backed Hanfmann | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee3…cfc9backed Hanfmann | 3c | 381.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…a000backed Hanfmann | 5c | 212$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Yannick Hanfmannthis page
- Alcaraz vs. Hanfmann: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Hanfmann: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Alcaraz vs. Hanfmann: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs HanfmannAlcaraz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.