MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1db7333e02a6d81a26b6b20053a8cff1c5bdca53a2c276f376c3aed1875e86e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Chicago Cubs, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Chicago Cubs | 40c | 10,217$4,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,083.88 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 9,080$5,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,631.89 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 74c | 2,641$1,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.27 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago Cubs | 26c | 1,921$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.46 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Chicago Cubs | 26c | 463.87$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.61 | 333 | 52.3%174 W · 159 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 359$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.6 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 67c | 334.06$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.14 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 321.16$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.46 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Chicago Cubs | 38c | 274$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.12 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c7…5cecbacked Chicago Cubs | 25c | 179.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 75c | 146.66$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Chicago Cubs | 31c | 121.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 108.32$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.37 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 448 | 45.8%205 W · 243 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Chicago Cubs | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 93.74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.33 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 90$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd9…8593backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 83.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 76.59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 963 | 49%472 W · 491 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 390 | 49%191 W · 199 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 33.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 74c | 29.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 75c | 24.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 527 | 52.2%275 W · 252 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x03f8…99d0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 76c | 19.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 76c | 15.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 201 | 61.2%123 W · 78 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.