MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b9532811124ef76947a654d433b65e0cd4eb3be1f0d4f00a17b26d65b90273b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $175,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $180,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $175,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 51c | 67,810$34,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,498.73 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Under | 49c | 67,331$32,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,339.05 | 505 | 53.5%270 W · 235 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…8409backed Over | 52c | 30,000$15,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,599.98 | 272 | 53.7%146 W · 126 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Over | 52c | 27,691$14,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,468.01 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 48c | 22,574$10,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,738.51 | 883 | 49.3%435 W · 448 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 48c | 17,832$8,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,272.64 | 925 | 54.1%500 W · 425 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 48c | 12,658$6,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,582.17 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 9,617$4,869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,747.6 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 49c | 7,441$3,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,646.2 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 50c | 4,450$2,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,205.17 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 712 | 53.4%380 W · 332 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 51c | 3,677$1,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,867.24 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 47c | 3,222$1,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,707.66 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb68…a240backed Under | 48c | 3,125$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,625 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 51c | 2,972$1,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,448.77 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 48c | 2,002$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.95 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Over | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 454 | 51.3%233 W · 221 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 8c | 1,927$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.16 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ab…3bb3backed Under | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.08 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +7.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 52c | 1,500$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.63 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed Over | 49c | 1,430$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.85 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 1,000$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 7c | 941.29$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 50c | 888$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444 | 1,358 | 50.8%690 W · 668 L | +13.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…2345backed Over | 49c | 860$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.4 | 71 | 54.9%39 W · 32 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc57…2b3cbacked Over | 49c | 816.33$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 51c | 796.19$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.66 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 10c | 671.44$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.42 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…dc4dbacked Under | 49c | 616.49$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.49 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 18c | 605.56$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.46 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 662 | 50.2%332 W · 330 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 49c | 343.82$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.97 | 575 | 51.7%297 W · 278 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f6…15fbbacked Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7e…dd3cbacked Over | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 51c | 267$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.12 | 336 | 49.1%165 W · 171 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 7c | 229$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…84afbacked Over | 49c | 223$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.27 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 51c | 217.43$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.54 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 42c | 213.79$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.79 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 50c | 206.48$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.24 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 177 | 52.5%93 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed Under | 51c | 175$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.75 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 384 | 53.9%207 W · 177 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 7c | 158.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 47c | 156.5$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.17 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 48c | 135.11$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.73 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…f46abacked Under | 47c | 104.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.63 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 551 | 46.8%258 W · 293 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966f…5cdcbacked Under | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8553…61dbbacked Under | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +119.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 785 | 50.2%394 W · 391 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 31c | 64.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Under | 52c | 58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 366 | 50.8%186 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a23…6e7bbacked Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 448 | 45.8%205 W · 243 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e6…b490backed Under | 49c | 48.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…5fc2backed Under | 50c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 253 | 56.9%144 W · 109 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Over | 50c | 42.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 390 | 49%191 W · 199 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 48c | 41.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce3…6431backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x241c…8be3backed Over | 47c | 40.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +4.5wins | +0.20per pick | 54cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…1012backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x624f…8d59backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Over | 51c | 38.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 325 | 52.9%172 W · 153 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e4…d492backed Under | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed Under | 50c | 31.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df4…bbc4backed Under | 49c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 51c | 27.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 49c | 26.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.