MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf82a6ac404eeca586a22eef243982fbb27872efd976ee1be2c0108a2d5a1fa3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,870
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,870 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 44c | 6,901$3,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,875.77 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 50c | 4,009$2,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,003.56 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 56c | 3,915$2,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,201.76 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 27c | 1,496$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 481 | 45.3%218 W · 263 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 73c | 1,035$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.48 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 56c | 949$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.44 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 56c | 906.2$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.47 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 78c | 802.19$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.79 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 56c | 800$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 56c | 398.99$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.43 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 57c | 372$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.85 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…c5c3backed Under | 44c | 341.16$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.05 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 53c | 179$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.13 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 43c | 168$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.96 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Over | 45c | 129.19$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.61 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 57c | 124$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.68 | 336 | 49.1%165 W · 171 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 42c | 118.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.29 | 448 | 45.8%205 W · 243 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 58c | 114.48$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.4 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa466…1c77backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +238.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 53c | 64.63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under | 53c | 59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 483 | 43.3%209 W · 274 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3618…b2b2backed Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 98 | 40.8%40 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 58c | 46.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 43c | 44.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 527 | 52.2%275 W · 252 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 51c | 39.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa94…b3f4backed Under | 43c | 38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 57c | 31.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf2…ac54backed Under | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 53c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.