TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: UB Alma Mater vs FALKE Esports - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
UB Alma Materof UB Alma Mater, FALKE Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$138,808
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$188,113

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $138,808 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa8b6…fcdabacked FALKE Esports22c16,764$3,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,646.961729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-31.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x565c…878dbacked FALKE Esports42c4,825$2,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00414032.1%45 W · 95 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x270c…f66fbacked FALKE Esports1c4,500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60660%0 W · 66 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2e7…91a2backed FALKE Esports1c4,500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60641.6%1 W · 63 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-67.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad46…e6a6backed FALKE Esports1c4,500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60432.3%1 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid-61.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e8…9490backed FALKE Esports1c4,500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60460%0 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2b0…5e5ebacked FALKE Esports1c4,100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56772.6%2 W · 75 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-45.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d9f…787abacked FALKE Esports29c3,530$1,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.161645.3%279 W · 337 L+36.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked UB Alma Mater31c3,102$958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,144.4642149.2%207 W · 214 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e6…4c4ebacked FALKE Esports2c2,941$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.41643.1%2 W · 62 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+87.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6236…08d2backed UB Alma Mater59c2,781$1,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.27143.7%31 W · 40 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed UB Alma Mater66c2,159$1,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.881,42838.4%548 W · 880 L-42.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x515d…0340backed UB Alma Mater29c1,583$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,124.5735758.5%209 W · 148 L+19.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0160…c757backed FALKE Esports2c1,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30540%0 W · 54 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e50…0ea8backed FALKE Esports2c1,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30690%0 W · 69 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed FALKE Esports4c1,276$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9670641.5%293 W · 413 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed FALKE Esports74c1,250$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.882953.4%443 W · 386 L-3.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20b8…0b16backed UB Alma Mater25c1,202$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902.45749.1%28 W · 29 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfad…fa05backed UB Alma Mater35c1,143$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.861,22358.1%710 W · 513 L+43.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked FALKE Esports4c1,106$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6887443.1%377 W · 497 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9473…cba4backed FALKE Esports33c1,082$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.9655045.3%249 W · 301 L-0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed UB Alma Mater76c1,063$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.321,05650.4%532 W · 524 L+36.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8840…f51abacked FALKE Esports2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20422.4%1 W · 41 L+0.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed UB Alma Mater26c954.54$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.032,24037.3%836 W · 1,404 L-31.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked UB Alma Mater30c842$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59225256.3%142 W · 110 L+14.2wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed UB Alma Mater30c836.67$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.6723454.7%128 W · 106 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1d9…5333backed UB Alma Mater73c821.91$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.9259459.1%351 W · 243 L+26.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed UB Alma Mater31c807.1$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.11,57155.1%866 W · 705 L+80.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3f1…7535backed UB Alma Mater78c675.6$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.234737.5%130 W · 217 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3bc…5bd2backed FALKE Esports76c658.37$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50029748.1%143 W · 154 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f4e…b690backed FALKE Esports74c637$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.6482954.5%452 W · 377 L+3.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd2…2b8fbacked UB Alma Mater31c537$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.5344051.4%226 W · 214 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed FALKE Esports57c530.6$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.782,91038.5%1,120 W · 1,790 L-120.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0da…749bbacked UB Alma Mater66c498.75$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.4168915.2%105 W · 584 L-31.1wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-58.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa844…83b8backed UB Alma Mater73c435.63$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.2462158.8%365 W · 256 L+32.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5bf9…ad6ebacked UB Alma Mater51c400$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19615743.3%68 W · 89 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5abe…d360backed UB Alma Mater51c400$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19617746.3%82 W · 95 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b39…1f68backed UB Alma Mater51c370.18$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.3919846%91 W · 107 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bd9…56cfbacked FALKE Esports28c357.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012525.6%32 W · 93 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid+7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10ef…7d7bbacked UB Alma Mater67c350.83$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.2569259.7%413 W · 279 L+75.8wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x257c…a408backed UB Alma Mater61c336.72$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.1236652.5%192 W · 174 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5266…22acbacked FALKE Esports48c332.34$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.1511357.5%65 W · 48 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8557…6f88backed UB Alma Mater35c315.78$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.7842348.2%204 W · 219 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed FALKE Esports14c302$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.221,81339.1%709 W · 1,104 L-30.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed FALKE Esports28c300$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8412937.2%48 W · 81 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked UB Alma Mater72c277.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.781,67559.3%993 W · 682 L+96.8wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbafa…02e0backed UB Alma Mater29c270$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19180750.8%410 W · 397 L+48.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb2ed…2a85backed UB Alma Mater54c249.99$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.9986758.1%504 W · 363 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked FALKE Esports35c242.93$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.8288949.6%441 W · 448 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e9f…3988backed FALKE Esports72c231.75$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.3340055.8%223 W · 177 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked UB Alma Mater23c226$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.022,70735.9%972 W · 1,735 L-152.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-31.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f25…d5debacked FALKE Esports43c225.06$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.01650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6f8…7fa1backed FALKE Esports67c224.78$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15078646.4%365 W · 421 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbac…6b32backed UB Alma Mater58c224.14$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.143271.9%23 W · 9 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f19…474ebacked UB Alma Mater51c219.6$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.619637.8%74 W · 122 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x191f…f09ebacked FALKE Esports73c200.37$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.2742540.7%173 W · 252 L-17.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7049…85a5backed UB Alma Mater51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9822639.4%89 W · 137 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bbb…0ac2backed UB Alma Mater51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9816242%68 W · 94 L-0.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30ce…d485backed UB Alma Mater51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9815343.8%67 W · 86 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc27f…2a25backed UB Alma Mater30c193$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.1797452.5%511 W · 463 L+36.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked FALKE Esports69c185$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.651,06154.7%580 W · 481 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d9a…d10fbacked UB Alma Mater51c179$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.7122838.6%88 W · 140 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked UB Alma Mater54c178.97$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.911,91237.1%709 W · 1,203 L-115.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-32.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed UB Alma Mater43c170$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$974652.2%24 W · 22 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fd0…c253backed UB Alma Mater32c161.47$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.83237.5%12 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6374…6408backed UB Alma Mater51c160$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.418638.7%72 W · 114 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8812…c41abacked UB Alma Mater29c157.59$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.4625551.4%131 W · 124 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x39c2…dc0bbacked FALKE Esports66c151.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006358.7%37 W · 26 L-0.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe846…252bbacked FALKE Esports33c150$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.520336.9%75 W · 128 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa45a…02e5backed UB Alma Mater36c140.08$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.0836147.9%173 W · 188 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc44e…284abacked UB Alma Mater51c117.64$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.6419838.9%77 W · 121 L-0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2aa5…ff32backed UB Alma Mater35c116$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.91,23249.4%609 W · 623 L+13.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked FALKE Esports16c112.05$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.362,02030.5%617 W · 1,403 L-172.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2802…347dbacked UB Alma Mater51c108.21$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.0221940.6%89 W · 130 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf60…5267backed FALKE Esports78c102.88$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8016171.4%115 W · 46 L+15.4wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+9.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked UB Alma Mater33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6760943.2%263 W · 346 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9d4…a3d5backed FALKE Esports71c100$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7124657.3%141 W · 105 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cb2…e737backed UB Alma Mater30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7020024.5%49 W · 151 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed FALKE Esports65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651,54543.8%676 W · 869 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cd2…648cbacked FALKE Esports57c99.99$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5796348.7%469 W · 494 L+28.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31e7…fe2abacked FALKE Esports46c86.96$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407846.2%36 W · 42 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+18%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed UB Alma Mater34c80$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.151,34349%658 W · 685 L-26.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65fe…c200backed UB Alma Mater74c75.07$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5222360.1%134 W · 89 L-0.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked FALKE Esports73c75$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.752,98444.5%1,329 W · 1,655 L-94.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ba9…a8d8backed FALKE Esports53c70$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3746762.3%291 W · 176 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked UB Alma Mater58c69.67$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.61,23937.3%462 W · 777 L-39.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked UB Alma Mater69c69.34$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.551,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc925…6d24backed UB Alma Mater63c67.66$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.0365725.9%170 W · 487 L-93.4wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-53.9%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked UB Alma Mater71c67$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.271,47643.6%643 W · 833 L-31.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x267c…5bfdbacked UB Alma Mater76c65$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.627848.2%134 W · 144 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ada…dcb4backed UB Alma Mater51c61.74$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.254250%21 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf2f…0115backed UB Alma Mater39c60$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.636955.3%204 W · 165 L+14.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x330f…91b1backed FALKE Esports47c55$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.051,25752.8%664 W · 593 L+14.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4ee…e425backed UB Alma Mater27c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.575142.1%316 W · 435 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x667c…559cbacked UB Alma Mater72c48.6$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.62445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c47…7a9fbacked FALKE Esports55c45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7529940.1%120 W · 179 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x976f…8a71backed FALKE Esports73c43.75$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.741758.8%10 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick73cpaid-22.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc806…57c6backed FALKE Esports33c43.09$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2216243.8%71 W · 91 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1436…0121backed FALKE Esports71c42.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3066558.8%391 W · 274 L-37.4wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-9.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf59e…f0bfbacked UB Alma Mater50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.188267.1%55 W · 27 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.