MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1decec74c5c20324b48457bc0f9eab3b45e3527f7871003eacd471d298551d48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Toronto Blue Jays | 70c | 625.67$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.34 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 621.94$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.8 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 44c | 568.43$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.34 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Baltimore Orioles | 29c | 562.99$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.89 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Baltimore Orioles | 29c | 562.97$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.61 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 71c | 439.36$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.41 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 71c | 422.53$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.53 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 365$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.65 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Baltimore Orioles | 10c | 149.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 149.07$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Toronto Blue Jays | 70c | 140.39$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Toronto Blue Jays | 71c | 139.62$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Baltimore Orioles | 76c | 135$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Baltimore Orioles | 30c | 99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 28c | 98.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.25 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 93.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 78.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 76c | 71$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Baltimore Orioles | 29c | 69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 34.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 30.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Toronto Blue Jays | 75c | 28.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 19.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb0…dbc2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 19.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5)this page
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-5.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 14.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.