MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x885e1b7060c44343746ecb08308e161d2be44751e1ec92b74658479d78e2a3e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,971
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,971 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 53c | 16,086$8,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,588.29 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Over | 46c | 16,000$7,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,639.99 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Over | 46c | 6,007$2,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,243.93 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 53c | 5,768$3,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,056.97 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Over | 47c | 5,319$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,819.15 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 46c | 4,677$2,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,533.01 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 54c | 4,603$2,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,485.62 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x085e…9aeabacked Under | 55c | 3,171$1,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,744.04 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Over | 46c | 3,000$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,620 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 53c | 2,500$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 46c | 2,173$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.42 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 48c | 1,929$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.51 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 48c | 1,929$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.51 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Over | 48c | 1,898$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986.92 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 47c | 1,501$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.69 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 47c | 1,235$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.36 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 1,203$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.58 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 52c | 1,160$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.02 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 54c | 982.38$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.49 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 52c | 956.95$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.61 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…3b21backed Under | 53c | 949$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.97 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 47c | 787.11$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.17 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 42c | 493$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.58 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 48c | 420.74$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.57 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 54c | 342.59$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.59 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 50c | 331.57$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.3 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Over | 75c | 260$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Under | 54c | 249.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.99 | 228 | 49.1%112 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 52c | 244.96$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.1 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 52c | 225.78$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.15 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 224.28$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.83 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Under | 54c | 206.02$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.25 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 30c | 175.27$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39c5…5a2fbacked Under | 57c | 172.28$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.93 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 61c | 154.44$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.87 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed Over | 78c | 152$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Under | 54c | 138.89$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Over | 48c | 127.08$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.08 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Under | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 46c | 108$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.05 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…12d6backed Over | 47c | 107$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.71 | 138 | 53.6%74 W · 64 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…53bbbacked Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86a0…bb4ebacked Under | 54c | 94.36$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…7eb2backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 47c | 90$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 54c | 74.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 21c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 47c | 62.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Over | 47c | 53.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe604…dc02backed Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.26per pick | 52cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b06…9d38backed Under | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bda…8254backed Over | 42c | 43.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 89 | 66.3%59 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed Over | 47c | 42.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 52c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…2b55backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 234 | 55.1%129 W · 105 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 48c | 36.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…1bc0backed Over | 57c | 30.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c94…1f7dbacked Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Under | 38c | 26.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 47c | 23.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 58c | 23.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 53c | 21.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 56c | 20.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-5.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 14.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.