TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Baltimore Oriolesof Toronto Blue Jays, Baltimore Orioles
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,982
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,922

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,982 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84cf…2f63backed Toronto Blue Jays35c5,048$1,767 inLost-$1,766.94,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Baltimore Orioles65c5,044$3,279 inWon+$1,765.462,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Baltimore Orioles78c1,101$859 inWon+$242.224,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Toronto Blue Jays35c993.59$348 inLost-$347.762,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays22c961$212 inLost-$211.98,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles65c781.44$508 inWon+$273.511,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45d1…83dabacked Toronto Blue Jays35c571.43$200 inLost-$20013851.4%71 W · 67 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Baltimore Orioles65c440$286 inWon+$15489053.1%473 W · 417 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Baltimore Orioles65c400$260 inWon+$1406,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa69d…228ebacked Toronto Blue Jays35c290$102 inLost-$101.519335.8%69 W · 124 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Baltimore Orioles65c234.42$152 inWon+$82.051,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Baltimore Orioles65c201.35$131 inWon+$70.474,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Toronto Blue Jays35c145$51 inLost-$50.7556440.4%228 W · 336 L-16.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6210…4fb1backed Toronto Blue Jays35c142$50 inLost-$49.714759.9%88 W · 59 L+14.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+19.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa1a8…6764backed Toronto Blue Jays35c133.46$47 inLost-$46.7126438.3%101 W · 163 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Baltimore Orioles65c103.4$67 inWon+$36.192,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Toronto Blue Jays34c50.1$17 inLost-$17.031,66143.5%722 W · 939 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Baltimore Orioles65c50$33 inWon+$17.555643.9%244 W · 312 L-38.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x86a0…bb4ebacked Toronto Blue Jays35c39.6$14 inLost-$13.866746.3%31 W · 36 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Baltimore Orioles66c34$22 inWon+$11.562,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.