MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e72d4d2fbe7b549cada4320181b8486872e545f927dee69913c2fd5156e59e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 50c | 9,153$4,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,543.22 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 3,569$1,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,923.01 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 54c | 1,200$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 54c | 1,149$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.46 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 53c | 1,052$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.52 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2542…7821backed Over | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 52c | 1,018$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.96 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 47c | 851.06$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 44c | 575.82$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.05 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 30c | 501$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.91 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…0facbacked Under | 72c | 456.75$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 125 | 75.2%94 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 30c | 297.38$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.66 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 44c | 285.65$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.88 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 38c | 245.83$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.31 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 45c | 219.02$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.56 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Under | 45c | 219$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.55 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 45c | 219$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.55 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under | 37c | 165.3$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.03 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 45c | 160.07$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.41 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 51c | 153$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.03 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c23…ed23backed Under | 67c | 148.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Over | 74c | 130$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 46c | 128.35$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 45c | 126.93$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Under | 46c | 117.2$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 54c | 114.5$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.83 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 73c | 106.85$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.68 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 28c | 101.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.91 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Over | 23c | 99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.23 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 51c | 81.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 51c | 77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 34c | 76.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 35c | 72.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Under | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 51c | 61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 41c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 33c | 52.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Under | 26c | 50.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bda…8254backed Over | 27c | 48.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 89 | 66.3%59 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde1b…5710backed Under | 36c | 42.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd030…f3f0backed Under | 45c | 32.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 70c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb0…dbc2backed Under | 64c | 21.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 51c | 20.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5458…19d8backed Under | 70c | 15.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5this page
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-5.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 14.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.