MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa86fd2128888fe958c81080d47ef3692f7ea5b5cc72d05ce794f2b8f8d743ac3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,977
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,977 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 13,158$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,157.89 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 5,672$3,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,516.76 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb459…3efdbacked Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 3,900$1,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,427.22 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 2,962$1,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,846.03 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 2,697$1,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,698.85 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 1,529$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.16 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 1,365$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.7 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 1,318$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.32 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 1,279$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.98 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 1,112$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.41 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 1,016$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.97 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 1,013$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.5 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 1,010$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.86 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 899.99$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.4 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 511.38$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.17 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 300$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 22c | 228$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Toronto Blue Jays | 16c | 165.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…53bbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 102$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9121…bd6cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 99.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcc…13c3backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 58.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 41.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…79bdbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 31.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 27.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb0…dbc2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 23.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 17.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 17.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 17.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-5.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 14.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.