NHL · resolved market
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e388bbcedf5a7c350d1eae66936f1863cddb636792772d95dc06f77e7c03752
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 47c | 1,180$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.85 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Under | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 57c | 456.68$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.37 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 53c | 443.99$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.32 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Over | 47c | 362.77$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 57c | 277.57$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.35 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 54c | 250$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Over | 46c | 217$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.18 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Under | 54c | 180$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d20…9871backed Under | 56c | 179.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 44c | 141.25$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.1 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Over | 47c | 133$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.49 | 108 | 58.3%63 W · 45 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Under | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 52c | 121.03$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.94 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Under | 54c | 89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked Under | 54c | 87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Over | 45c | 71.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…1fb3backed Under | 54c | 63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 53.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Under | 54c | 49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 53c | 47.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b80…8e56backed Over | 46c | 47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…e3a4backed Over | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…0751backed Over | 46c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 53c | 37.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 49c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Under | 51c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 291 | 47.4%138 W · 153 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Over | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 196 | 47.4%93 W · 103 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 46c | 34.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c1…6c6cbacked Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 137 | 43.1%59 W · 78 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…0acbbacked Under | 54c | 34.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 46c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ed…53f7backed Over | 46c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f96…92e0backed Over | 46c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…e66fbacked Over | 46c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…6070backed Over | 46c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 54c | 25.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c5…4997backed Over | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Under | 54c | 21.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5this page
- Avalanche vs. Golden KnightsAvalanche won
- Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Golden Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.