Lol · resolved market
Will a team from LCS (North America) win MSI 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e5179e2ad483beb64cb089393817b4f4ba77c285a389d8ccdea4cc0b498fa33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $165,487
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,487 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce08…510bbacked Yes | 1c | 20,258$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.26 | 1,212 | 54.5%660 W · 552 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 0c | 19,094$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 1,098 | 34.8%382 W · 716 L | -17.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515e…8309backed Yes | 3c | 15,719$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.22 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b2…a017backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 470 | 47.4%223 W · 247 L | +24.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5e…7315backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4af…c998backed Yes | 1c | 7,658$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 7,357$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 898 | 10.7%96 W · 802 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba48…907cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,124$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 981 | 63.8%626 W · 355 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e1…84b5backed Yes | 1c | 3,838$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed Yes | 1c | 3,833$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 479 | 33.6%161 W · 318 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…60e7backed Yes | 1c | 3,453$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 168 | 28.6%48 W · 120 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 3,415$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 1cpaid | +572.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 2,785$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e9…ee2dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,268$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de3…4a97backed Yes | 1c | 1,999$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 7c | 1,994$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.62 | 494 | 61.3%303 W · 191 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41dd…afb8backed Yes | 6c | 1,847$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.57 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x709e…66f5backed Yes | 3c | 1,783$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,746$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,551$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.71 | 120 | 22.5%27 W · 93 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eee…9ee9backed Yes | 1c | 1,527$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb647…0efbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,510$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafd6…3710backed Yes | 2c | 1,373$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 2c | 1,142$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5061…1b03backed Yes | 2c | 961.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd43…dbbabacked Yes | 3c | 921.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 2c | 784.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 4cpaid | +225.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bc…46f8backed Yes | 3c | 620$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 273 | 40.7%111 W · 162 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…f057backed Yes | 2c | 601.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 27cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d14…36fdbacked Yes | 13c | 504.19$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.03 | 143 | 46.2%66 W · 77 L | +13.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x631a…a80fbacked Yes | 5c | 500.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…6871backed Yes | 2c | 484.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd004…d54abacked Yes | 7c | 439.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e06…c9e3backed Yes | 8c | 405.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Yes | 5c | 398.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 267 | 54.7%146 W · 121 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a team from LCS (North America) win MSI 2026?this page
- Will a team from CBLOL (Brazil) win MSI 2026?No won
- Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026?Yes won
- Will a team from LCP (Asia-Pacific) win MSI 2026?No won
- Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026?No won
- Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.