MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e734ac55bc6066f6014c1e855c4f2ece13e6fe37d9661cdefaba637f6be9025
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,234
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,234 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 58c | 4,903$2,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,041.46 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 54c | 4,569$2,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,466.82 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 3,240$1,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680.6 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 48c | 1,947$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.98 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…345cbacked Under | 39c | 1,851$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,126.9 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Over | 62c | 800$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…8a9bbacked Under | 44c | 679.45$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.49 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 59c | 534.6$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.81 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 51c | 441.56$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.81 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Over | 61c | 409$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.49 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 44c | 402.32$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.59 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 62c | 377.44$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.47 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 62c | 366.76$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.39 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Over | 52c | 297.8$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.1 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 38c | 289.5$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.49 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 47c | 239.09$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.32 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 36c | 230$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b22…9431backed Over | 51c | 204$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.04 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 18c | 192$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Under | 63c | 168$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.41 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Under | 57c | 165.32$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.09 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 38c | 161.62$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.2 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0598…3d83backed Under | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 75c | 129.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 56c | 123.1$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.52 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Over | 50c | 120.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 56c | 119.12$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.59 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Over | 51c | 117.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 27c | 104.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…4716backed Over | 22c | 103.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 51c | 103.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Over | 52c | 91.34$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Over | 51c | 78.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 52c | 65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 54c | 61.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x467c…614dbacked Under | 55c | 56.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa1…2c8abacked Over | 56c | 53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2da4…31bfbacked Over | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 41c | 49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb323…e253backed Under | 44c | 47.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Over | 51c | 39.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 58c | 35.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41cf…8268backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 61%72 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a10…2a2ebacked Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 39c | 32.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba31…8794backed Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 47c | 28.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 43c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Under | 43c | 23.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Over | 48c | 21.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 51c | 20.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.