MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a4702e30a156aa45fe05155cf2cba2927569bdc64be7b9aac319f3474205a26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,425
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,425 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 26,864$11,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,574.27 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 25,486$14,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,813.63 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 999.99$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.41 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 70c | 964.56$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.82 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 35c | 934.94$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.75 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Cincinnati Reds | 18c | 824.41$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 685.13$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.03 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Cincinnati Reds | 13c | 504.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.15 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 45c | 379.98$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.41 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 80c | 343.25$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.7 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…7cacbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 68c | 255.66$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.81 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 32c | 223.22$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.43 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 67c | 218.82$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.21 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 74c | 169.02$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 67c | 164.19$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Cincinnati Reds | 34c | 142.26$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Cincinnati Reds | 12c | 111$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 68c | 105$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 33c | 96.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Cincinnati Reds | 17c | 75.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 80c | 73.23$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 80c | 73.2$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Cincinnati Reds | 39c | 67.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Cincinnati Reds | 20c | 66.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc670…b781backed Cincinnati Reds | 32c | 65.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Cincinnati Reds | 29c | 58.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 57.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Cincinnati Reds | 33c | 57.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…d264backed Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 47.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 38.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 34.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 48c | 30.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 29.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc44e…284abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 51c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 22.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 68c | 14.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.