Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FK Crvena zvezda vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e7f11179c57813ec68e14280980c4279ce79399a4744eea2f6ec7afc21c9ebd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,381
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,381 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe76f…39fcbacked Yes | 27c | 1,855$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,354.62 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 71c | 1,320$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.04 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…c120backed No | 74c | 999.98$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.98 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 858.46$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.35 | 920 | 50.9%468 W · 452 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 33c | 704.49$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.51 | 2,999 | 42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Yes | 39c | 667.36$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.36 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Yes | 26c | 500$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa62d…92e0backed Yes | 26c | 492.31$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 26c | 427$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.98 | 204 | 49.5%101 W · 103 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 21c | 409$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.87 | 785 | 44.8%352 W · 433 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed No | 74c | 384.59$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.6 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 36c | 349.12$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.23 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 15c | 311.85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…9838backed Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x417e…15e5backed Yes | 26c | 288.46$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.46 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7104…8cffbacked Yes | 44c | 270.93$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.93 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Yes | 26c | 264.61$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.81 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 59c | 230.49$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.97 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed No | 17c | 205.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 61c | 205.14$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.24 | 771 | 41.8%322 W · 449 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 26c | 204$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.96 | 139 | 20.1%28 W · 111 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Yes | 26c | 202$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.48 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed No | 33c | 197.46$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.56 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 75c | 190$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 147 | 40.8%60 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 25c | 185$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.75 | 219 | 25.6%56 W · 163 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…ba97backed No | 73c | 173.33$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.4 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 49c | 165.56$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.18 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…e208backed Yes | 27c | 151.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.85 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 18c | 147.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 16c | 143.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 797 | 32.2%257 W · 540 L | -16.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 17c | 130$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 40c | 124.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 18c | 124.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked No | 9c | 105.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d9…2f4abacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…2abbbacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde77…8cd3backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 64cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed Yes | 26c | 78.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.04 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 73c | 76.93$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.45 | 121 | 46.3%56 W · 65 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84e5…2303backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbc…bdfbbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7b3fbacked No | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aea…eff2backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…5ba4backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -58%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed Yes | 26c | 52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6b8dbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9eb…272dbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…42e7backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed Yes | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5212…29c7backed No | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 33c | 44.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked No | 74c | 43.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff9…46bbbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked No | 75c | 38.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 74c | 36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b80…8e56backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1c…a6adbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…47fabacked No | 74c | 29.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb196…33d5backed No | 74c | 29.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9de8backed Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed No | 73c | 28.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d9…6febbacked No | 74c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88d0…524cbacked No | 74c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 46c | 26.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed No | 74c | 26.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…810fbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FK Crvena zvezda vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw?this page
- Will FK Crvena zvezda win on 2026-01-29?No won
- Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-01-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.