TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE (BO3)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Ninjas in Pyjamasof Ninjas in Pyjamas, Team WE
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$172,614
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$206,558

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,614 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 164 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Ninjas in Pyjamas47c17,174$8,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,145.121,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ca8…1a39backed Team WE58c14,181$8,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,156.8428746%132 W · 155 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x58f8…dc70backed Ninjas in Pyjamas52c13,708$7,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,513.4940370.2%283 W · 120 L+31.3wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+9.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x11e2…26ccbacked Ninjas in Pyjamas45c12,000$5,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,599.981546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd01…d5acbacked Team WE57c8,576$4,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,888.524858.1%144 W · 104 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3dd…a7e0backed Team WE55c8,417$4,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,629.1913453.7%72 W · 62 L+0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Ninjas in Pyjamas45c6,000$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,30085746.3%397 W · 460 L+17.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Team WE54c6,000$3,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,239.994250%21 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Team WE55c5,455$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00017537.1%65 W · 110 L+0.7wins0.00per pick37cpaid+9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Team WE57c5,272$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00051852.7%273 W · 245 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224b…8927backed Ninjas in Pyjamas43c5,000$2,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,85042050.5%212 W · 208 L+27.9wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+9.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x50fd…cd30backed Team WE49c4,000$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,960250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd81d…b365backed Ninjas in Pyjamas47c4,000$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,12026865.7%176 W · 92 L+13.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Team WE2c3,856$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.8137245.2%168 W · 204 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8292…f774backed Team WE56c3,540$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00016238.9%63 W · 99 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed Ninjas in Pyjamas44c3,505$1,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,957.591,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7433…c66cbacked Ninjas in Pyjamas43c2,954$1,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,683.851625%4 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-31.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Team WE53c2,722$1,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,451.443539.5%172 W · 263 L-24.9wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Team WE45c2,681$1,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,203.7942840.2%172 W · 256 L-32.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8ade…e692backed Ninjas in Pyjamas50c2,612$1,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,297.8122654.4%123 W · 103 L+20.9wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed Team WE55c2,318$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,274.7648742.3%206 W · 281 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…1e5bbacked Team WE35c2,300$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.2429536.9%109 W · 186 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b48…4705backed Team WE56c2,214$1,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,234.484942.9%21 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+31.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2be4…01adbacked Team WE25c2,189$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.484928.6%14 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3414…067abacked Ninjas in Pyjamas43c2,000$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,14077131.8%245 W · 526 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Team WE55c2,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.991,18044.5%525 W · 655 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Team WE58c1,726$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00018945.5%86 W · 103 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf85…1681backed Team WE30c1,700$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504248.3%2 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-56.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e0d…5d23backed Team WE57c1,600$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9121861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+31.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Team WE55c1,490$819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.524529.8%73 W · 172 L-0.9wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2249…3005backed Team WE27c1,460$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40028458.5%166 W · 118 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team WE46c1,350$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.842,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Ninjas in Pyjamas44c1,348$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.591,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3242…0e0bbacked Ninjas in Pyjamas45c1,229$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675.891540%6 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid+38.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa61b…3984backed Ninjas in Pyjamas44c1,200$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6722128.6%6 W · 15 L-4.4wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-49.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3a33…28e8backed Ninjas in Pyjamas43c1,080$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.514746.8%22 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf43…ae9abacked Ninjas in Pyjamas44c1,039$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.8420151.7%104 W · 97 L-11.3wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-8.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x85d5…45eebacked Ninjas in Pyjamas50c1,002$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.7159558.3%347 W · 248 L-29.3wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x77c0…af29backed Team WE1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021819.3%42 W · 176 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Ninjas in Pyjamas43c888.08$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.451,60948.4%779 W · 830 L+24.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Team WE53c866.04$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4593336.4%12 W · 21 L-4.8wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-27.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaddc…ed0dbacked Team WE53c830.19$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-47.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Team WE21c768.99$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.7259952.8%316 W · 283 L-3.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-12.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3212…634ebacked Ninjas in Pyjamas44c730.47$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.7721536.7%79 W · 136 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc954…642fbacked Team WE55c727.27$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4003138.7%12 W · 19 L-5.6wins-0.18per pick57cpaid-35.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed Team WE50c700$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35054129.9%162 W · 379 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed Ninjas in Pyjamas42c694.86$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.766149.2%30 W · 31 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Team WE29c679.98$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.1978050%390 W · 390 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb693…cfc9backed Ninjas in Pyjamas44c658.41$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.711346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Team WE30c644.97$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.4913543%58 W · 77 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Ninjas in Pyjamas45c589.71$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.8313259.1%78 W · 54 L+10.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+18.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Team WE56c543.74$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.333,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf808…6e99backed Team WE57c526.32$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005750.9%29 W · 28 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-17.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed Ninjas in Pyjamas42c500$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29046033.9%156 W · 304 L+27.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+22%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Ninjas in Pyjamas45c494.99$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.272,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed9e…5fc7backed Team WE65c462.81$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-45.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2439…2e1fbacked Ninjas in Pyjamas48c424.73$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.446347.6%30 W · 33 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Team WE38c420.16$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.0685046%391 W · 459 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Ninjas in Pyjamas45c406$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.314650%73 W · 73 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5eab…d552backed Team WE29c399.99$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11638624.4%94 W · 292 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa1a…d9abbacked Team WE44c393.53$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.992254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+25.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Team WE55c363.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20044335.4%157 W · 286 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc67b…c149backed Team WE55c363.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a05…4c5abacked Team WE56c357.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20019168.6%131 W · 60 L+17.0wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0d29…6da9backed Team WE56c354.41$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20032752.9%173 W · 154 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e09…a4edbacked Team WE39c317.06$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.5521759%128 W · 89 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7a0…05c4backed Ninjas in Pyjamas71c309.86$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.8635035.1%123 W · 227 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Ninjas in Pyjamas43c300$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17127452.2%143 W · 131 L+16.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+12.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4923…6866backed Team WE55c300$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1653441.2%14 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c1…cba5backed Ninjas in Pyjamas46c300$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1621100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf5c…48f9backed Team WE41c250$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.55048%24 W · 26 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+2.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbbb6…a2fcbacked Ninjas in Pyjamas44c241.89$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.469835.7%35 W · 63 L-0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0341…a679backed Team WE41c241.79$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10019042.1%80 W · 110 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Team WE27c239.98$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.049741.2%40 W · 57 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9702…1042backed Team WE55c227.62$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.191546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x10b2…9ac1backed Ninjas in Pyjamas45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.2216941.4%70 W · 99 L+0.6wins0.00per pick41cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb893…bf4bbacked Team WE57c210.53$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12016347.2%77 W · 86 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe463…f7b2backed Team WE56c210$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.631643%136 W · 180 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcab9…675bbacked Team WE54c200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd991…c161backed Team WE52c192.88$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10031855.7%177 W · 141 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a8…1b66backed Team WE54c184.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.772060%12 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+19.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb82b…3a09backed Team WE56c184$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.0418046.7%84 W · 96 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda5c…ed5bbacked Team WE57c175.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Team WE23c165.81$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9216934.3%58 W · 111 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-27.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f0c…1cd5backed Team WE36c160.88$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.921216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-72.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x699c…3600backed Team WE57c150$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.5875%6 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+20.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6cc…a9d0backed Ninjas in Pyjamas44c149.51$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.222100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+191.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x854e…8ad8backed Ninjas in Pyjamas71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.852100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cdc…231dbacked Ninjas in Pyjamas72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8911053.6%59 W · 51 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b95…b23ebacked Team WE55c135.71$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751,02445%461 W · 563 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4627…7c23backed Team WE58c133.62$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.539450.3%198 W · 196 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Ninjas in Pyjamas45c133.33$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.3392342.7%394 W · 529 L-16.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Team WE13c130.55$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.883957.1%28 W · 367 L-122.2wins-0.31per pick38cpaid-74.1%equal weight18-0.29 edge/pick
0x8d54…8d9abacked Ninjas in Pyjamas45c122.22$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.223450%17 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+26%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4620…2716backed Team WE11c120$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.66838.2%26 W · 42 L-8.1wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-29.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1829…2250backed Team WE21c119.49$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.55130%0 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc0af…5490backed Ninjas in Pyjamas45c116.58$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.4212242.6%52 W · 70 L-7.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed Ninjas in Pyjamas71c112.68$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.6826354%142 W · 121 L-16.8wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a7e…c00abacked Team WE55c111.29$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2111146.8%52 W · 59 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd795…6fcdbacked Ninjas in Pyjamas45c109$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.9531435.7%112 W · 202 L+15.5wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.