NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hawks (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ec40b8d639d7ee30d87b1565dd1cf0f7666c83dd31d0aaf343a983b88f1a73b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wizardsof Hawks, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hawks | 1c | 6,666$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.91 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Wizards | 47c | 5,979$2,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,168.83 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hawks | 53c | 4,714$2,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,499.36 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63e2…bb9bbacked Wizards | 47c | 3,800$1,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,014 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb9…2396backed Hawks | 53c | 3,800$2,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,014 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Hawks | 6c | 3,404$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.26 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…6313backed Hawks | 53c | 1,200$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf32…e0e7backed Wizards | 47c | 1,200$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Hawks | 54c | 1,185$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.68 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83f3…3861backed Wizards | 46c | 630$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf49d…106fbacked Hawks | 54c | 629.55$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Wizards | 45c | 534.02$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.05 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Hawks | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Hawks | 57c | 391.23$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 271 | 61.3%166 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Wizards | 46c | 375$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.5 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Hawks | 54c | 352$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.22 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…ed47backed Wizards | 47c | 314.89$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.89 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdea…6951backed Hawks | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 204 | 34.8%71 W · 133 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Wizards | 46c | 220.5$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.07 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Wizards | 46c | 205.19$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.2 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…df76backed Hawks | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 470 | 48.5%228 W · 242 L | -18.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5f…2348backed Hawks | 54c | 194.44$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Wizards | 46c | 190.07$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.64 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Hawks | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Hawks | 54c | 120$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Hawks | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Wizards | 48c | 106$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.66 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Wizards | 45c | 102.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.46 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2813…5c42backed Hawks | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Hawks | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Hawks | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…f0e8backed Hawks | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Hawks | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…c325backed Hawks | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a95…f2b9backed Hawks | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Hawks | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Wizards | 43c | 52.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Wizards | 46c | 49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 824 | 40.4%333 W · 491 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Wizards | 43c | 35.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…f4c5backed Hawks | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Hawks | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 158 | 41.1%65 W · 93 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…d314backed Hawks | 54c | 24.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hawks (-9.5)this page
- Hawks vs. WizardsWizards won
- Hawks vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineWizards won
- Hawks vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Wizards: O/U 236.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: Hawks (-10.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Hawks (-8.5)Wizards won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.