NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hawks (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77a278ec5a0f8a81d0db8fd6a58f4433fbe85fa2f953f3e481c92eafd97ac781
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wizardsof Hawks, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Hawks | 59c | 10,016$5,871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,871.04 | 155 | 51%79 W · 76 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wizards | 45c | 5,182$2,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,873.4 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c5…5c0dbacked Wizards | 42c | 3,600$1,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,088 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e9…80a8backed Hawks | 58c | 3,600$2,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,088 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf4…8860backed Wizards | 42c | 3,000$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,740 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…898cbacked Hawks | 59c | 1,400$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd74c…deb7backed Wizards | 41c | 1,400$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wizards | 41c | 929.69$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.8 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Wizards | 41c | 900$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Wizards | 42c | 868.83$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.14 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Hawks | 59c | 847.46$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Wizards | 42c | 700.44$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.51 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Wizards | 40c | 624.33$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.6 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa763…709ebacked Hawks | 58c | 530$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.4 | 198 | 45.5%90 W · 108 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdea…6951backed Hawks | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 204 | 34.8%71 W · 133 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4741backed Hawks | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Wizards | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb3…ffafbacked Hawks | 59c | 493.88$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd509…b06abacked Wizards | 41c | 390.24$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.24 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd224…9f9bbacked Hawks | 59c | 295.58$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd65d…a9e6backed Wizards | 42c | 184.24$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.86 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Hawks | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc495…d35ebacked Hawks | 58c | 160$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e95…5b00backed Wizards | 43c | 160$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Wizards | 41c | 154.73$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.29 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Hawks | 58c | 150$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Wizards | 42c | 144$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.52 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Wizards | 41c | 128.81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…fc1abacked Hawks | 56c | 104$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Hawks | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Hawks | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Hawks | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdc…60a4backed Wizards | 43c | 78.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Wizards | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Hawks | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd64…c090backed Hawks | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Wizards | 40c | 41.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Hawks | 61c | 40.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d3…45c3backed Wizards | 41c | 36.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed9e…f83fbacked Hawks | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccc…4368backed Hawks | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Hawks | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…0f1bbacked Hawks | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Wizards | 41c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Wizards | 51c | 25.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 327 | 43.4%142 W · 185 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1358…d34abacked Hawks | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Hawks | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 158 | 41.1%65 W · 93 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Wizards | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd95…52fbbacked Hawks | 58c | 22.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 139 | 38.8%54 W · 85 L | -14.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hawks (-8.5)this page
- Hawks vs. WizardsWizards won
- Hawks vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineWizards won
- Hawks vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Wizards: O/U 236.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: Hawks (-10.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Hawks (-9.5)Wizards won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.