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NBA · resolved market

Hawks vs. Wizards

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Wizardsof Hawks, Wizards
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,729,960
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,603,062

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,729,960 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 720 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Wizards41c252,097$104,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147,524.6996447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Wizards18c234,202$41,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192,456.7472648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Wizards18c175,378$30,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144,485.7515443.5%67 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Hawks1c161,346$1,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,592.791,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74cd…2319backed Hawks0c61,845$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.482165.6%12 W · 204 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick11cpaid-61%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Wizards17c55,555$9,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,110.3887144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6adc…bebabacked Hawks37c49,446$18,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,300.463411.8%4 W · 30 L-8.5wins-0.25per pick37cpaid-62%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Wizards73c43,918$32,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,891.4922457.1%128 W · 96 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Hawks18c41,330$7,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,367.4278445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed Wizards19c35,566$6,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,808.679336.6%34 W · 59 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Wizards18c33,648$5,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,699.174,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd123…d341backed Wizards73c30,208$22,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,104.972240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Wizards19c28,961$5,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,500.6547028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Wizards18c28,900$5,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,655.9874748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Wizards59c28,093$16,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,543.814,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Wizards18c26,994$4,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,134.8759646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a59…770cbacked Hawks33c26,649$8,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,742.156665.2%43 W · 23 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Hawks0c21,320$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.228820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16da…ef29backed Hawks8c20,585$1,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,559.0712960.5%78 W · 51 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x00d6…aa44backed Wizards17c20,000$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,599.975815.5%9 W · 49 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-24.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed Wizards18c20,000$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,399.9123245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Hawks0c19,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.671,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44f7…266fbacked Hawks0c17,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254573.5%16 W · 441 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Wizards18c16,981$3,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,924.192,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Hawks76c16,240$12,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,274.5381529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3d6…34e3backed Wizards19c16,065$3,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,937.4720542.9%88 W · 117 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Wizards47c15,294$7,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,094.985,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Hawks42c15,000$6,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,249.9844337.9%168 W · 275 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5224…0de8backed Wizards41c14,809$6,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,737.395658.9%33 W · 23 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Wizards18c13,807$2,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,28669852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff12…09f9backed Wizards76c13,324$10,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,22919388.1%170 W · 23 L+48.6wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+46.2%equal weight75+0.22 edge/pick
0xc08b…e35bbacked Hawks1c13,147$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1826259.7%37 W · 25 L+7.4wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+14.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Hawks34c11,450$3,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,871.931,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Wizards19c10,528$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,527.6811741.9%49 W · 68 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Hawks53c10,439$5,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,517.0451753.8%278 W · 239 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Wizards71c10,200$7,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,918.11,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x240c…bd0dbacked Wizards18c10,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,200666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+65.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bd6…918ebacked Hawks0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106811.8%8 W · 60 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick9cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Wizards18c10,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,199.96152.5%32 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8980…d4f4backed Wizards18c10,000$1,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,149.7921951.1%112 W · 107 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19fd…5838backed Wizards17c9,999$1,673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,326.415925.4%15 W · 44 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-32.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Hawks32c9,477$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00031044.8%139 W · 171 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Wizards27c9,187$2,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,706.0748046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Wizards17c9,150$1,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,594.3710144.6%45 W · 56 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Wizards17c9,062$1,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,537.589,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Wizards18c9,062$1,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,415.543,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Wizards18c8,769$1,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,190.2935651.1%182 W · 174 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbb3…d38ebacked Wizards40c8,600$3,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,1623455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed Wizards17c8,500$1,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,054.914447.7%21 W · 23 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+34.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Wizards17c8,400$1,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,987.9661835.4%219 W · 399 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Hawks18c8,146$1,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,498.675433.3%18 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-35.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Hawks30c8,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40037930.6%116 W · 263 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d62…476cbacked Wizards18c7,533$1,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,176.821190.9%10 W · 1 L+3.7wins+0.34per pick57cpaid+92.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Wizards17c7,500$1,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,224.9866250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x656c…7f2dbacked Wizards18c7,251$1,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,945.871070%7 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick41cpaid+157.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Wizards55c6,909$3,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,140.4826038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed Wizards17c6,847$1,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,681.577957%45 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9981…dec4backed Wizards63c6,520$4,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,434.995369.8%37 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed Hawks35c6,426$2,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,222.1432151.7%166 W · 155 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Hawks28c6,373$1,801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,800.727917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ddb…420bbacked Hawks52c5,939$3,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,065.0629458.5%172 W · 122 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x045d…d649backed Hawks27c5,776$1,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,567.0712238.5%47 W · 75 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Hawks0c5,739$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.27502%15 W · 735 L-3.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-63.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Wizards18c5,739$1,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,705.898846.6%41 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4e9…a5afbacked Wizards18c5,627$1,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,613.8650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid+37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a2e…6200backed Hawks3c5,486$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.722516%4 W · 21 L-4.0wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Wizards19c5,400$1,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,37462351.4%320 W · 303 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdafd…5ffbbacked Wizards66c5,285$3,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,805.9683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick67cpaid+25.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Hawks7c5,208$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.534524.3%84 W · 261 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d9…a6e1backed Wizards58c5,207$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,207.075667.9%38 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cc1…fdc6backed Hawks40c5,138$2,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0734050%20 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Wizards59c5,079$2,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,083.568,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Wizards19c5,050$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,090.51,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Hawks53c5,050$2,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,654.9776850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Wizards16c5,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,2001,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1467…51e3backed Wizards18c5,000$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,10010941.3%45 W · 64 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc90…ec0cbacked Hawks2c4,760$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.41160%0 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2006…cc76backed Hawks58c4,750$2,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,749.88366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+87.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3605…1ae1backed Hawks20c4,745$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969.2223043%99 W · 131 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Wizards19c4,421$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,581.1595049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Wizards18c4,378$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,589.9738434.9%134 W · 250 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeff7…4bb3backed Hawks49c4,242$2,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0962733.3%9 W · 18 L-4.8wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-51.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Hawks32c4,021$1,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,275.891,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bf4…8860backed Wizards18c4,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,2803357.6%19 W · 14 L+4.7wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+46.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3b59…41c5backed Wizards19c4,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,240757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+63.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Wizards18c3,949$721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,228.6348944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Hawks34c3,926$1,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,321.5373649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked Hawks25c3,923$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.6916919.5%33 W · 136 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb461…76cfbacked Wizards19c3,907$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,164.762462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+27.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe3b3…2e90backed Hawks32c3,803$1,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,217.11553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Hawks29c3,707$1,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,093.4785344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7de0…7c66backed Hawks27c3,666$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00040536.5%148 W · 257 L+13.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdab…47a8backed Wizards18c3,450$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,814977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.24per pick53cpaid+58.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Wizards18c3,432$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,801.032,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Wizards19c3,392$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,754.2462541.9%262 W · 363 L-32.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Wizards18c3,364$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,758.1236351.2%186 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2c…94c5backed Hawks48c3,205$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5309141.8%38 W · 53 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x022b…b28cbacked Wizards18c3,200$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,62416730.5%51 W · 116 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Hawks13c3,074$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.161,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaca8…c951backed Wizards18c3,000$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4603026.7%8 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.