NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e3440c9046126a20d5b0cee4194398d15fbc6b2a2905ca5281cd18d2b87a556
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 4,262$1,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,972.98 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Over | 52c | 1,758$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 56c | 991.07$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.07 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Over | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 42c | 941.57$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.96 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Under | 47c | 499.97$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.99 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 56c | 350$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 43c | 339.95$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.07 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…c52fbacked Over | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.62 | 185 | 36.2%67 W · 118 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 58c | 215$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.3 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92fa…7d02backed Over | 60c | 201.33$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.33 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 45c | 196.36$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.36 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5f…2348backed Over | 55c | 196.36$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.36 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 156 | 57.7%90 W · 66 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 45c | 132.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.62 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Over | 69c | 120$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 31c | 120$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 53c | 105$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Over | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Over | 59c | 102.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.27 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 345 | 56.2%194 W · 151 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 39c | 83.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a52…9ad6backed Over | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8658…41c6backed Over | 53c | 70.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Over | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 199 | 57.8%115 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…8b3abacked Over | 55c | 58.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 291 | 56.4%164 W · 127 L | +13.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…6574backed Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Over | 53c | 52.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd2…a1fdbacked Over | 54c | 49.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Under | 48c | 49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be8…f449backed Over | 53c | 46.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 55c | 36.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 246 | 45.9%113 W · 133 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 55c | 32.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Over | 52c | 25.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 204 | 56.4%115 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141b…4c41backed Under | 46c | 25.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e4…b6adbacked Over | 53c | 25.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e8…82d1backed Under | 46c | 24.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Over | 52c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 193 | 51.3%99 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c92backed Over | 59c | 22.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62bf…d9cfbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5this page
- Hawks vs. WizardsWizards won
- Hawks vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineWizards won
- Hawks vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Wizards: O/U 236.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: Hawks (-10.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Hawks (-8.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Hawks (-9.5)Wizards won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.