UFC · resolved market
Will Adrian Yanez win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ef811398c64b97ca12eab3906f44571439c3a2da3dd897cd26de7976e6bf736
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 44c | 1,920$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.49 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Yes | 56c | 1,786$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.71 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…ac09backed Yes | 53c | 918.98$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.54 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 47c | 736.41$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.48 | 225 | 48%108 W · 117 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde74…77abbacked No | 48c | 528.8$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.83 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 48c | 403$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.44 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 52c | 399.99$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 52c | 319.2$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.39 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 48c | 299.2$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.57 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 146 | 49.3%72 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54ea…f74abacked No | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 52c | 193.05$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.42 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed No | 50c | 192.69$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -5.4wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 52c | 184.43$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.2 | 138 | 36.2%50 W · 88 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e8…7953backed Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 186 | 47.3%88 W · 98 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed No | 46c | 150.32$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.58 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 47c | 142.53$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.29 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…aff3backed Yes | 57c | 89.28$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed No | 46c | 74.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked No | 43c | 70.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 159 | 60.4%96 W · 63 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 54c | 63.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cf…6b0bbacked Yes | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Yes | 49c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Yes | 50c | 48.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45f8…c99abacked Yes | 52c | 47.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe650…0944backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa144…fc6cbacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb88…b23bbacked Yes | 56c | 35.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84a3…44dcbacked Yes | 56c | 28.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Yes | 51c | 21.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Adrian Yanez win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 329: Cody Garbrandt vs. Adrian Yanez (Bantamweight, Prelims)Adrian Yanez won
- Will Cody Garbrandt win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.