F1 · resolved market
Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f1a11beecbda7b2e09d0e06a068fcafa5070f78eb035044aca89254839ca628
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,928
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,928 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Yes | 1c | 50,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…2ef0backed Yes | 10c | 5,219$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 2c | 4,960$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.12 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…86cebacked Yes | 2c | 3,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,636$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a9…f6b7backed Yes | 5c | 999.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6af…e12fbacked Yes | 4c | 980$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…cf15backed Yes | 3c | 895.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d5…3403backed Yes | 5c | 718.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Yes | 4c | 657.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…5b14backed Yes | 5c | 499.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37f0…3e25backed Yes | 5c | 400$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 3c | 348.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf716…82ccbacked Yes | 6c | 294.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…a74fbacked Yes | 10c | 240.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74df…1237backed Yes | 9c | 223.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…1744backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 84 | 27.4%23 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1191…f6a8backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes | 8c | 189.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9f…91dbbacked Yes | 7c | 167.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b33…286abacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…bf5bbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c83…2637backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix?this page
- Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.