F1 · resolved market
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33a89d5c96534599daa948d3d352858e5d573556e032398f1a33fdb2708d964e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,841
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,841 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 22c | 13,509$2,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,974 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…2ef0backed Yes | 5c | 9,187$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 25c | 6,231$1,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,566.7 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 78c | 5,169$4,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160.98 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed No | 78c | 4,979$3,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…76d5backed Yes | 22c | 4,734$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.9 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 73c | 4,678$3,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280.33 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 3,894$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 57 | 0%0 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe42e…8d89backed Yes | 22c | 3,248$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba73…ab9abacked Yes | 10c | 3,227$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…86cebacked Yes | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 1c | 2,318$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c1…8a69backed Yes | 4c | 2,203$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.73 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x074b…a249backed Yes | 5c | 2,083$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 73c | 2,000$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb256…b6dfbacked Yes | 7c | 1,977$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf6…51ccbacked Yes | 5c | 1,923$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.16 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…ad47backed Yes | 3c | 1,859$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb54a…c622backed Yes | 2c | 1,517$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ea…0b14backed No | 75c | 1,334$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.67 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 7c | 1,268$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x628e…a488backed No | 78c | 1,090$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.74 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d5…3403backed Yes | 5c | 1,052$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ad…578fbacked Yes | 24c | 1,045$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.75 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda5d…a1b2backed Yes | 28c | 1,009$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 979.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…c9a1backed Yes | 28c | 892.86$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 77c | 669.74$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.04 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed No | 78c | 536.45$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.61 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…14b5backed Yes | 5c | 510.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40c4…adbebacked Yes | 5c | 444.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 23c | 400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d73…044bbacked No | 77c | 336.63$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.42 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf716…82ccbacked Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb758…dd73backed Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37f0…3e25backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x545a…fbb9backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06b2…9f35backed Yes | 29c | 298$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.4 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -64%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f6…02cdbacked Yes | 5c | 250$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbd…d4f4backed Yes | 5c | 240$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a0…0fb8backed Yes | 24c | 212.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ed…32afbacked Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c08…5c69backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…1e09backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe35…eafcbacked Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26a9…f6b7backed Yes | 26c | 175$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce4e…c56fbacked Yes | 27c | 145.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed No | 78c | 124$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…d5dcbacked Yes | 28c | 117.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Yes | 24c | 111.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 73c | 94.79$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9f…91dbbacked Yes | 28c | 87.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8870…6578backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41d3…3db7backed No | 78c | 85.67$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3f…e00bbacked Yes | 26c | 70.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74df…1237backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes | 24c | 54.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ec…7158backed No | 78c | 38.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8000…cb92backed Yes | 30c | 37.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bd…3dc6backed No | 77c | 37.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 74c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 112 | 66.1%74 W · 38 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix?this page
- Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.