TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

F1 · resolved market

Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
F1every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$111,072
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$109,012

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,072 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in F1
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2c33…0563backed No70c30,000$21,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,999.99540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf0…153ebacked Yes30c15,000$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,500450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes27c9,500$2,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,524.995337.7%20 W · 33 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-37%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f1f…59dfbacked Yes24c8,311$1,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,972.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed No70c7,439$5,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,235.52560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Yes16c7,009$1,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,137.759223.9%22 W · 70 L-0.2wins0.00per pick24cpaid-48.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes30c6,995$2,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,076.0521337.6%80 W · 133 L+0.6wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39a5…c9a1backed Yes30c6,550$1,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,938.251421.4%3 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-57.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe42e…8d89backed Yes31c5,484$1,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,682.79616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-74.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed No70c5,179$3,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,557.2212246.7%57 W · 65 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-19.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Yes30c4,861$1,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,443.975759.6%34 W · 23 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+7.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b14…d18cbacked Yes1c4,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.95714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked No72c3,869$2,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,101.73250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes29c2,500$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.997739%30 W · 47 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d48…66abbacked Yes30c1,600$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.92450%12 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Yes29c1,550$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.513219.7%26 W · 106 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x168a…da29backed No68c1,175$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.1614458.3%84 W · 60 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5159…d7aebacked No70c1,052$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.217955.7%44 W · 35 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67a7…86cebacked No68c1,000$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3201931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x827f…7f59backed Yes30c993.89$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.092425%6 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes4c959$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.05570%0 W · 57 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73dc…8d32backed No79c805.73$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.171258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed Yes26c804.66$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.188027.5%22 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda5d…a1b2backed No73c804.28$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.39666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+59.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e3f…e00bbacked Yes26c677.01$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.346732.8%22 W · 45 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76dc…17b4backed Yes13c668.13$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.0512646.8%59 W · 67 L+10.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+35.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6628…ad47backed Yes5c636.27$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.18147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick13cpaid-45.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8523…1c9fbacked No80c625$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1251540%6 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-22%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes28c547.62$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.368622.1%19 W · 67 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-60.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x25ad…46fcbacked Yes30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick28cpaid-49.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed Yes4c500$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.25630.4%17 W · 39 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x649f…993ebacked No73c490.26$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.371050%5 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+29.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe6a…d44bbacked Yes23c437.92$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-34.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed No72c418.68$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.68580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+26.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3fa2…cf15backed Yes28c349.99$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986410.9%7 W · 57 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfcc…8d8abacked Yes25c305.25$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.21922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ced…c09cbacked Yes30c299.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-30.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x210c…2edabacked No76c299.23$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.91560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+21.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c72…dfb6backed Yes27c299.08$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.751376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.17per pick59cpaid+20.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe880…de2dbacked Yes32c284.38$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912661.5%16 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e9f…91dbbacked Yes30c239.45$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.153828.9%11 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-27.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b7a…4817backed Yes15c231$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.346845.6%31 W · 37 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcaf4…bde0backed Yes30c221.6$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.48450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+74.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb256…b6dfbacked Yes25c217.81$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f75…9004backed Yes29c215.21$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdacd…19cabacked Yes27c185.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4d5…3403backed Yes27c185.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e60…b440backed Yes15c175$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.512419.4%24 W · 100 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904f…50c6backed Yes13c153.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3915922%35 W · 124 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61ed…32afbacked Yes33c151.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-30.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe35…eafcbacked Yes32c146.88$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4730%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a8…1b38backed Yes27c144.44$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396136.1%22 W · 39 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed Yes32c138$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.683716.2%6 W · 31 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-69%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xab70…2c34backed No75c134.07$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.02333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-55.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No79c130$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.22867.9%19 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No67c124.79$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.837659.2%45 W · 31 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked No71c117.91$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.192378.3%18 W · 5 L+4.9wins+0.21per pick57cpaid+39.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0a10…556cbacked Yes29c108.55$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51d9…cb1abacked Yes29c103.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5543…4195backed Yes29c103.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302653.8%14 W · 12 L+3.4wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+45.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5696…6552backed Yes16c102.35$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…0220backed Yes28c102.19$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.82128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-70%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x07b6…6faabacked No71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0c3…8cd8backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick26cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf270…7a37backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed Yes26c99.58$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8914356.6%81 W · 62 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7dc2…8c7fbacked Yes28c92.68$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.951241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe457…1ac2backed No73c89.03$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3147…7667backed Yes31c81.46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255418.5%10 W · 44 L-6.9wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-45.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe927…6d88backed Yes28c70.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-41%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes24c69.65$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.45812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick20cpaid-71.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd01…4148backed Yes29c69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7aa5…c8a1backed No76c55.12$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.41966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+21.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21c5…3533backed Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163351.5%17 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x32a7…22aabacked Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51163.6%7 W · 4 L+3.6wins+0.33per pick31cpaid+155.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x61a7…dd91backed Yes30c49$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7825%2 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbbd…d4f4backed Yes32c46.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfac…490fbacked No74c40.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.61478.6%11 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick69cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked No72c39.42$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0411266.1%74 W · 38 L+8.3wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+8.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed No70c33.33$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cf1…ce80backed No71c28.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.17250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ae7…411fbacked No71c27.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+39.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb257…52eebacked No72c26.39$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.39250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ef…1927backed No73c25.97$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.01250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22b0…6faebacked No73c20.55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.553237.5%12 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50d8…f015backed No67c19.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+53.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x364f…562cbacked No77c19.59$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.591353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.