Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f3922401a50508171e82b0d7666c60cb8706093d3c2699ff9a2a778a3f48e9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nightblood Gamingof Nightblood Gaming, Pigeons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,429
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e15…7531backed Pigeons | 39c | 1,390$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.53 | 333 | 48.3%161 W · 172 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Nightblood Gaming | 59c | 1,333$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.75 | 415 | 37.1%154 W · 261 L | -26.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee8e…0a7bbacked Nightblood Gaming | 62c | 1,161$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.68 | 781 | 62%484 W · 297 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5984…76ebbacked Pigeons | 40c | 1,135$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.38 | 297 | 33.3%99 W · 198 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc045…92f1backed Pigeons | 4c | 973.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Pigeons | 25c | 778.24$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.31 | 465 | 26.7%124 W · 341 L | -25.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Nightblood Gaming | 73c | 598.82$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.32 | 1,746 | 46.2%806 W · 940 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Pigeons | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 136 | 42.6%58 W · 78 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed Pigeons | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 173 | 49.7%86 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…99a3backed Pigeons | 40c | 490.07$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.45 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Nightblood Gaming | 60c | 426.07$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.46 | 231 | 46.8%108 W · 123 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Pigeons | 40c | 375.94$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.83 | 1,422 | 51.3%729 W · 693 L | +49.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Pigeons | 29c | 375.8$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.98 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -6.7wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5333…8926backed Nightblood Gaming | 80c | 325.53$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Nightblood Gaming | 61c | 309.58$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.74 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Nightblood Gaming | 62c | 304.67$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.84 | 702 | 51.3%360 W · 342 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c50…2de6backed Nightblood Gaming | 63c | 297.25$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.98 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf74a…a91cbacked Nightblood Gaming | 68c | 288.61$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Nightblood Gaming | 61c | 279.08$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.16 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…0d2ebacked Pigeons | 39c | 267.48$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.99 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f9…fee2backed Nightblood Gaming | 54c | 260.71$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.93 | 282 | 47.5%134 W · 148 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Pigeons | 16c | 250.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 779 | 29.5%230 W · 549 L | -72.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked Pigeons | 39c | 239.96$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.43 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Pigeons | 32c | 214.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 164 | 42.1%69 W · 95 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Nightblood Gaming | 61c | 191.8$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.79 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc188…3857backed Nightblood Gaming | 76c | 169.93$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Pigeons | 41c | 167.28$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.89 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd74…76b9backed Pigeons | 28c | 136.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Nightblood Gaming | 59c | 131.68$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed Pigeons | 40c | 120.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +8.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d5…7ca1backed Nightblood Gaming | 67c | 115.41$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Nightblood Gaming | 72c | 115.34$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 347 | 39.8%138 W · 209 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Nightblood Gaming | 61c | 110.8$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 224 | 52.7%118 W · 106 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99be…3622backed Nightblood Gaming | 61c | 100.06$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Pigeons | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 101 | 42.6%43 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Nightblood Gaming | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 257 | 45.9%118 W · 139 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba58…6d74backed Pigeons | 49c | 98.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 255 | 55.7%142 W · 113 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Pigeons | 44c | 98.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Nightblood Gaming | 71c | 98.26$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 420 | 51.9%218 W · 202 L | -21.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa442…dca3backed Nightblood Gaming | 76c | 98.07$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 80 | 62.5%50 W · 30 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Nightblood Gaming | 63c | 94.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 235 | 48.5%114 W · 121 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Pigeons | 31c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 196 | 61.7%121 W · 75 L | +20.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1445…614abacked Pigeons | 32c | 89.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Nightblood Gaming | 58c | 89.22$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 312 | 27.6%86 W · 226 L | -33.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Pigeons | 33c | 86.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 191 | 40.3%77 W · 114 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2185…b40cbacked Nightblood Gaming | 63c | 79.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c5…b613backed Nightblood Gaming | 62c | 76$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08f1…705cbacked Nightblood Gaming | 61c | 73.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec38…ca10backed Nightblood Gaming | 64c | 70.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Pigeons | 40c | 68.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 291 | 51.5%150 W · 141 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Pigeons | 21c | 64.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 404 | 54.7%221 W · 183 L | +17.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nightblood Gaming | 68c | 62.63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 1,380 | 47.1%650 W · 730 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Nightblood Gaming | 62c | 59.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 636 | 52.7%335 W · 301 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb818…6611backed Nightblood Gaming | 65c | 59.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1791…3e87backed Pigeons | 26c | 55.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Nightblood Gaming | 62c | 52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Pigeons | 28c | 50.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 575 | 17.7%102 W · 473 L | -71.7wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked Pigeons | 40c | 48.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2c…9642backed Pigeons | 38c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Pigeons | 30c | 45.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 210 | 48.1%101 W · 109 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2b…5271backed Pigeons | 41c | 43.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7894…7b9dbacked Nightblood Gaming | 63c | 41.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Nightblood Gaming | 60c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Nightblood Gaming | 63c | 35.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Pigeons | 32c | 33.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1,253 | 49.5%620 W · 633 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Nightblood Gaming | 65c | 31.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 219 | 51.6%113 W · 106 L | -16.1wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked Nightblood Gaming | 59c | 24.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…544bbacked Nightblood Gaming | 61c | 24.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed Nightblood Gaming | 64c | 23.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 95 | 61.1%58 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Nightblood Gaming | 61c | 22.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa60d…03a8backed Nightblood Gaming | 63c | 18.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73c8…60cabacked Nightblood Gaming | 63c | 17.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.