Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f604f2c01f2e282e588e5318971c01a50d7efdb4f6772d6ad47b50d11dc4b56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,092
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 951.99$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 31c | 847.89$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.88 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 617.35$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 31c | 398.31$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.78 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 75c | 352.48$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.16 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 11c | 339.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 31c | 290.23$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.05 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed Yes | 13c | 227.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 214$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.34 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 30c | 183$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 28c | 168.66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 7c | 168.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 21c | 166.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 75c | 138.34$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 77c | 131$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…545abacked No | 80c | 125.9$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 25c | 125.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef4…fe1cbacked Yes | 14c | 119.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 56cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 24c | 112.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 74c | 106.3$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 69c | 102.9$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 34c | 99.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 10c | 97.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 86$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 30c | 82.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 82.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 28c | 75.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca1…7e1ebacked Yes | 25c | 72.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 30c | 67.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 68c | 66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 35c | 62.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 54.9$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 26c | 52.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 78c | 49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 71c | 48.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 48.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 45.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 43.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 33c | 38.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 39c | 35.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 31c | 34.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2323…0218backed No | 75c | 22.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 75cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 68c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc805…3edebacked No | 69c | 18.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 75c | 15.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C or higher on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.