Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad75976a774ad3cc89f3765bf4c90cb3faffcc1132f967f94bf9326d699a44a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 1,171$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.35 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 46c | 615.47$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.05 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 55c | 590.16$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.64 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 501.95$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.9 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 417.86$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.66 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 61c | 359.48$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.3 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 29c | 257.16$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.84 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa89c…a608backed No | 77c | 183.68$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 29c | 170.77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 166.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf685…5ec9backed No | 64c | 156.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.64 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 70c | 142.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 36c | 131.64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 33c | 127.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 119.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…087bbacked Yes | 36c | 111.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 32c | 110.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.38 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 33c | 108.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…ab54backed Yes | 28c | 105.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 36c | 104.13$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 38c | 95$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 94.56$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 81.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 23c | 75.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 57c | 75.02$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 21c | 63.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 35c | 62.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 39c | 62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 47c | 60.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 59.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 29c | 55.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 32c | 51.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 57c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 67c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x722e…faddbacked No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…7055backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked No | 42c | 38.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 77c | 38.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 48c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 58c | 36.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10ba…2f9abacked Yes | 31c | 33.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 55c | 32.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…545abacked Yes | 46c | 30.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 66c | 30.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x150a…b6b1backed Yes | 74c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -8.7wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 46c | 23.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 72c | 21.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…64e5backed Yes | 72c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…f207backed No | 76c | 15.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C or higher on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.