Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f60a5a70997725273e6690cf20c547602b7f43331efa86a330ed028c393020c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 66c | 1,051$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.79 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 3c | 747.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 3c | 671.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 35c | 600$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.61 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 67c | 451.24$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.84 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…3dd8backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 29c | 329.92$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.35 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 32c | 270.59$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.57 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 32c | 270$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…26ffbacked Yes | 34c | 235.53$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.01 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 33c | 226$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.58 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 225$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 27c | 216$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 37c | 210.49$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.57 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 7c | 205.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 7c | 190$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf514…07cdbacked No | 59c | 166$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.06 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 70c | 147$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.13 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 44c | 132.02$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.68 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 64c | 121.9$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 120.62$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.38 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 21c | 116.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e1…4995backed Yes | 33c | 116.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 107.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 105.46$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.97 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 100.63$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 30c | 90.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed No | 67c | 77.57$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…362abacked Yes | 26c | 71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 69c | 65.85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 33c | 64.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 38c | 58.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 58.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 41c | 54.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 62c | 52.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8710…f9c7backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 68c | 43.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 64c | 43.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 32c | 42.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 34c | 41.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 38c | 38.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 69c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3e…0e9dbacked No | 65c | 35.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 34c | 35.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed No | 69c | 32.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 74c | 31.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe27a…c965backed No | 64c | 31.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 63c | 29.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 26.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 63c | 25.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 68c | 25.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…f0f7backed No | 69c | 23.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cfe…8286backed No | 65c | 23.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…80ecbacked No | 63c | 23.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked No | 66c | 22.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…33bcbacked No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 67c | 20.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b57…eb18backed No | 65c | 20.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed No | 73c | 20.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcab6…f3debacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked No | 63c | 19.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f0…1731backed No | 67c | 17.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.