TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,315
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,506

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,315 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfd36…a832backed Yes55c913.71$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.7165043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb106…13f4backed No45c600$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2709051.1%46 W · 44 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No41c461.23$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.421,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No48c411.21$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.394,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No11c341.44$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.561,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No40c251.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.55,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed No12c245.58$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.471,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No41c195.68$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4464021.7%139 W · 501 L-23.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes57c191.71$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.3514151.8%73 W · 68 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+11.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes78c185$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.656,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xff34…bf20backed Yes59c168.83$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.83520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-66.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf514…07cdbacked Yes52c168.65$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.513441.2%14 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+39.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes52c159.17$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.391,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3a7…2657backed No22c143.26$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8818328.4%52 W · 131 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-39.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6f6…0e74backed No43c120$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5119861.1%121 W · 77 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes44c112$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.21,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38fa…26ffbacked No41c109.98$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.592466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.7wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+26.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes56c107.14$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.1482742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c90…17efbacked No47c107.07$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2328847.2%136 W · 152 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No59c105.99$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.721,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74dd…2131backed No19c105.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.779115.4%14 W · 77 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-24.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93cc…454ebacked No42c103.93$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.125541.2%105 W · 150 L+22.4wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf64a…db74backed Yes63c100.89$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.733349.8%166 W · 167 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed No41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4141752%217 W · 200 L-11.4wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No40c98.01$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3554867.3%369 W · 179 L+26.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes77c88.32$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.452,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No41c85.84$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.481,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes54c83.28$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.281,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No44c77.54$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.944,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes60c75.03$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.289146.2%42 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No35c73.55$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.752,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cef…8fa3backed No43c72.38$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3139346.6%183 W · 210 L+29.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x29ae…c79fbacked Yes70c71.6$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.65945.8%27 W · 32 L-10.0wins-0.17per pick63cpaid-31.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No37c71.24$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.672,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No30c70$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2198236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No25c67.68$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9477151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e25…c7dbbacked No44c66$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.041414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick30cpaid-81.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No37c62.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.432,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa23b…b787backed Yes57c60$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.947350.7%37 W · 36 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes57c55$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.431,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes55c54.54$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.541,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes54c53.36$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No49c50.03$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3995852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x304b…a619backed No45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.527552%143 W · 132 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.51,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes55c48.89$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.852,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No41c46.16$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.822,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x13c3…fc7bbacked Yes56c45.41$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.98450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes55c43.61$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6325342.3%107 W · 146 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No28c40.88$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.631,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x72ed…203abacked Yes76c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.83447.1%16 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b27…ff88backed No34c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.69849%48 W · 50 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes56c39.98$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5912939.5%51 W · 78 L+0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No42c37.61$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.695,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf13…b91abacked No46c37.38$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2426442.4%112 W · 152 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No34c37.21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.611,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8373…f0bcbacked No42c37$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6517859%105 W · 73 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c9…17afbacked Yes57c35.21$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2115044.7%67 W · 83 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No43c34.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0e1…4995backed No44c34.04$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.986346%29 W · 34 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+37.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes76c33.41$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.152,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No35c33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.595,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0fe…e62abacked No43c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.923677.1%182 W · 54 L+23.3wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+16.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x77ce…f364backed No45c29.78$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa397…7817backed Yes52c28.85$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8514053.6%75 W · 65 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc812…9350backed Yes57c27.95$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.02450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29ef…dddabacked No49c26.66$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1118247.3%86 W · 96 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No46c26.44$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.094,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ce7…b17abacked Yes58c25.86$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0cd…d931backed No49c25.64$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6419956.3%112 W · 87 L-0.6wins0.00per pick57cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5425…4c65backed No44c25.14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1127852.9%147 W · 131 L+1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes51c25.1$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.371,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf73b…10bfbacked No44c24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5628344.5%126 W · 157 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes57c23.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.331,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes45c23.53$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.872,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea12…993bbacked Yes69c20.38$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.358744.8%39 W · 48 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-16.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x500e…7c9abacked Yes56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.86357.1%36 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x839e…f4d3backed Yes55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-45.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed Yes65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6b4…85d9backed Yes58c19.84$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.33560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes71c19.57$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.656,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.