NBA · resolved market

Wizards vs. Nets: O/U 229.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f94920638a837fe33ed0ade1f4417a144365f2531a0f042f57d949f568e092d

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Apr 5, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $9,892
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $9,158

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,892 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xafaf…1635backed Over	52c	2,527$1,312 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,215.79	1,036	47.6%493 W · 543 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Over	29c	1,763$511 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,251.64	1,271	38.3%487 W · 784 L	-13.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under	47c	1,573$747 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$746.67	1,282	43.4%557 W · 725 L	-51.2wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over	33c	608.06$201 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$406.81	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under	51c	558.95$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285.54	2,468	50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L	+38.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Under	47c	396.69$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.51	155	43.9%68 W · 87 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under	46c	376.65$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.29	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x927a…f706backed Over	54c	358.83$194 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$165.06	241	39%94 W · 147 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Under	71c	352.09$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.98	658	72.8%479 W · 179 L	+46.1wins	+0.07per pick	66cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	55c	280.65$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.37	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under	45c	217.61$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.92	1,277	47.2%603 W · 674 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under	49c	202.41$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.39	2,400	43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L	-82.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xff79…a52abacked Over	35c	199.92$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$129.95	44	45.5%20 W · 24 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Under	45c	184.62$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.99	813	49.4%402 W · 411 L	+5.5wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Under	46c	150.15$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.07	1,141	48%548 W · 593 L	+9.0wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Under	47c	125.99$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.22	935	43.6%408 W · 527 L	-32.6wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d6…10d9backed Over	55c	100$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-3.4wins	-0.24per pick	53cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over	24c	79.25$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.36	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over	54c	76.02$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.97	2,507	48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L	+19.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f18…2080backed Over	54c	69.46$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.76	248	50%124 W · 124 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Over	53c	67.6$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.84	355	46.5%165 W · 190 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e2c…d5cdbacked Over	62c	66.57$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.3	52	63.5%33 W · 19 L	+4.7wins	+0.09per pick	54cpaid	+23.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x28ce…9e59backed Over	48c	59.99$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.2	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Over	50c	58.07$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.77	377	53.8%203 W · 174 L	+12.0wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc0b…4db0backed Over	53c	55.01$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.85	184	59.2%109 W · 75 L	+10.7wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Over	23c	50.23$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.49	122	27%33 W · 89 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under	59c	49.17$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.96	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0576…6232backed Under	47c	37.69$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.71	211	49.3%104 W · 107 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdffd…924fbacked Under	52c	37.35$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.42	139	49.6%69 W · 70 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f49…fec0backed Under	73c	36.6$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.85	378	48.7%184 W · 194 L	+4.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c0e…8177backed Over	55c	31.84$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.33	206	50.5%104 W · 102 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Over	35c	31.04$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.05	41	53.7%22 W · 19 L	+3.7wins	+0.09per pick	45cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Over	53c	30.9$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.52	525	52%273 W · 252 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under	58c	29.64$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.31	1,286	50.8%653 W · 633 L	+11.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89b9…118ebacked Over	52c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.52	717	52%373 W · 344 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Under	61c	23.28$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.13	906	50.2%455 W · 451 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd208…29e6backed Under	61c	23.28$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.13	324	50.3%163 W · 161 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked Under	61c	23.28$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.13	350	52.6%184 W · 166 L	+6.0wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	53c	20.5$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.58	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Under	71c	18.91$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.37	143	59.4%85 W · 58 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd208…cbcdbacked Under	66c	16.16$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.74	152	52.6%80 W · 72 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under	67c	16.14$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.74	516	47.5%245 W · 271 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-10%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Wizards vs. Nets: O/U 229.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event